| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,798.40 | -0.28% |
| Nasdaq | 23,111.46 | +0.23% |
| Spot VIX | 16.25 | -1.40% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.52 | +2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.18 | +3 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1715 | -0.28% |
| USD/JPY | 155.53 | +0.47% |
| GBP/USD | 1.333 | -0.71% |
| WTI Oil | 56.82 | -1.08% |
| Gold | 4,316.74 | +0.31% |
| Bitcoin | 86,762.10 | -1.24% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 2,750 | - | 16,250 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 108,000 | - | -105,000 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | -105,000 | 50,000 | 64,000 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.20 | - | 0.40 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.70 | - | 3.70 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.70 | - | 3.50 |
| Labor Force Participation | 62.40 | - | 62.50 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.33 | - | 07:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | 08:15 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | 09:05 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.8m | -1.1m | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 6.4m | 2.1m | 10:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | 12:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | - | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | - | 3 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | - | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | - | 3 | 08:30 |
Payroll jobs growth was 64K, below consensus of 50K and the prior 119K, while unemployment ticked up to 4.6% from 4.4%, highlighting a stagnant labor market. Retail sales were flat at 0% m/m versus expected 0.1%, with wage growth steady at 3.7% annually, underscoring consumer strain from tariffs. ADP employment surged to 162.5K from prior levels, beating expectations and adding to mixed signals on hiring. Markets traded calmly with VIX at 16.25, equities stable at S&P 500 6798.40 and Nasdaq 23111.46, as investors awaited Fed guidance.
MBA 30-year mortgage rate at 7am may reveal housing market trends amid labor softness. Fed's Waller speaks at 8:15am, potentially discussing rate cut pace in the easing cycle. Williams' remarks at 9:05am could address inflation outlook, while Bostic at 12:30pm may refine labor market views. EIA crude inventories at 10:30am expected to show draws, impacting oil prices. Core CPI at 8:30am projected at 0.3% m/m, with year-over-year at 3%, key for Fed decisions. (cont...)
AI electricity demand is projected to hit 12% by 2040, straining grids amid booming tech investments. Return-to-office mandates are causing logistical chaos, reducing productivity in major firms like Amazon and JPMorgan. Ideas productivity lags despite R&D growth, with markets failing to commercialize innovations effectively.
In the cutting cycle, weak jobs data supports more cuts to stabilize growth, but tariff-driven inflation favors fewer reductions. Powell's prior emphasis on data dependence leans dovish, with markets pricing slower pace if labor cools further. Recent speeches highlight balanced risks, tilting toward steady easing to monitor geopolitical impacts. Consensus favors faster cuts if unemployment persists, avoiding pauses in a softening economy.