US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Oil Rises on Supply Risks
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,724.10 | -1.09% |
| Nasdaq | 22,693.32 | -1.81% |
| Spot VIX | 17.30 | -1.82% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.48 | -2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.15 | -2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1725 | -0.12% |
| USD/JPY | 155.85 | +0.10% |
| GBP/USD | 1.335 | -0.19% |
| WTI Oil | 55.27 | -2.73% |
| Gold | 4,326.14 | -0.28% |
| Bitcoin | 87,124.95 | +1.06% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.33 | - | 6.38 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | - |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.8m | -1.1m | -1.3m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 6.4m | 2.1m | 4.8m |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | - |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | - | 3 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | - | 3.10 | 08:30 |
| Consumer Price Index | - | 325.13 | 08:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 236,000 | 225,000 | 08:30 |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -1.70 | 3 | 08:30 |
| Philly Fed Business Conditions | 49.60 | - | 08:30 |
| Philly Fed CAPEX Index | 26.70 | - | 08:30 |
| Philly Fed Employment | 6 | - | 08:30 |
| Philly Fed New Orders | -8.60 | - | 08:30 |
| Philly Fed Prices Paid | 56.10 | - | 08:30 |
- US mortgage rates ticked up to 6.38%, signaling persistent housing affordability challenges amid labor market cooling.
- Crude oil inventories drew 1.27 million barrels, beating expectations and fueling supply-side concerns.
- Fed speeches from Waller and Williams underscored data-dependent easing, tilting toward slower cuts if inflation lingers.
Yesterday's Recap
The MBA 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.38% from 6.33%, reflecting ongoing housing market strain despite Fed cut expectations.
EIA crude oil inventories fell 1.27 million barrels, exceeding consensus of 1.10 million and supporting oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.
Fed speeches by Waller and Williams highlighted labor softness but cautioned against premature cuts, while Bostic noted solid growth risks.
Markets traded calmly with VIX at 17.30, equities stable at S&P 500 6724.10 and Nasdaq 22693.32, bonds yielding 10-year at 4.15% and 2-year at 3.48%.
FX steadied with EUR/USD at 1.1725 and USD/JPY at 155.85, commodities holding with WTI at 55.27 and gold at 4326.14, bitcoin at 87124.95.
The Day Ahead
Core inflation rate year-over-year at 8:30am is expected at 3%, with headline CPI at 3.1%, key for gauging Fed cut timing.
Weekly jobless claims at 8:30am projected at 225,000 versus prior 236,000, alongside Philly Fed manufacturing index at 3.
Philly Fed business conditions and CAPEX index will assess regional momentum, while Fed speeches may clarify easing pace. (cont...)
