US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Inflation Cools, Mfg Slumps
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,775.00 | +0.76% |
| Nasdaq | 23,006.36 | +1.38% |
| Spot VIX | 16.35 | -3.08% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.48 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.15 | +3 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1711 | -0.09% |
| USD/JPY | 157.29 | +1.08% |
| GBP/USD | 1.337 | -0.04% |
| WTI Oil | 55.94 | +1.21% |
| Gold | 4,326.51 | -0.10% |
| Bitcoin | 88,276.20 | +3.29% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | - | 3 | 2.60 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | - | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Consumer Price Index | - | 325.13 | 324.12 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 237,000 | 225,000 | 224,000 |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -1.70 | 3 | -10.20 |
| Philly Fed Business Conditions | 49.60 | - | 41.60 |
| Philly Fed CAPEX Index | 26.70 | - | 30.30 |
| Philly Fed Employment | 6 | - | 12.90 |
| Philly Fed New Orders | -8.60 | - | 5 |
| Philly Fed Prices Paid | 56.10 | - | 43.60 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Home Sales | 4.1m | 4.2m | 10:00 |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | 1.20 | - | 10:00 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final | 51 | 53.40 | 10:00 |
- CPI year-over-year dropped to 2.7% in November, below consensus and signaling easing inflation pressures.
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index plunged to -10.2, far missing expectations and highlighting regional economic weakness.
- Fed cut expectations strengthened as labor data softens, supporting a dovish tilt in policy outlook.
Yesterday's Recap
Core inflation rate year-over-year eased to 2.6% versus consensus 3%, while headline CPI fell to 2.7% from 3.1% expected, reflecting moderating price pressures.
Weekly jobless claims ticked down to 224,000, in line with forecasts, alongside a weak Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at -10.2 versus 3 expected, signaling contraction in business conditions and new orders.
Markets traded calmly with VIX at 16.35, equities edging higher as S&P 500 closed at 6,775 and Nasdaq at 23,006, bonds yielding 2-year at 3.48% and 10-year at 4.15%, FX steady with EUR/USD at 1.1711 and USD/JPY at 157.29, commodities holding with WTI oil at 55.94 and gold at 4,326.51, bitcoin at 88,276.
The Day Ahead
Existing Home Sales at 10:00am are projected at 4.2 million units versus prior 4.1 million, gauging housing momentum.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final at 10:00am expected at 53.4 versus 51.0 prior, key for consumer outlook amid inflationary cools.
No major Fed speeches scheduled, but data could influence market pricing of further rate cuts. (cont...)
