Tariff Tensions Weigh on Markets

Date: December 29, 2025

Tariff Tensions Weigh on Markets

Summary

Market Snapshot

Prior Close
Asset Level Days Change
S&P 500 6,932.70 -0.02%
Nasdaq 23,593.10 -0.09%
Spot VIX 14.87 +9.34%
2 Year Bond Yield 3.48 0 bps
10 Year Bond Yield 4.12 -2 bps
EUR/USD 1.1763 -0.10%
USD/JPY 156.31 -0.12%
GBP/USD 1.350 -0.05%
WTI Oil 58.35 0.00%
Gold 4,464.50 -1.48%
Bitcoin 87,665.21 -0.24%

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available

Upcoming Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month1.90110:00
Pending Home Sales Year-over-Year-0.40-10:00
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index-10.40-10:30
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory-1.3m-2.6m10:30
EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory4.8m1.1m10:30
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year1.401.1009:00
Chicago PMI36.3039.5009:45
Dallas Fed Services Index-2.30-10:30
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index-2.50-10:30
FOMC Meeting Minutes--14:00

Friday's Recap

Q3 GDP expanded at a robust 4.3% annualized rate, surpassing consensus forecasts of 3.3% and driven by strong consumer spending, while inflation moderated slightly to 0.71% in November. US bankruptcies climbed to their highest levels in 15 years, with large corporate filings totaling 717 through November, reflecting pressures from rising costs and geopolitical volatility. Markets traded calmly with VIX at 14.87, equities holding near highs, and bond yields stable at 4.12% for 10-year Treasuries amid thin holiday volumes. The US dollar edged lower against EUR to 1.1763, while commodities like WTI oil fell to 58.35 and gold slipped to 4464.50 on profit-taking. No major Fed speeches occurred, but economic data tempered rate cut expectations slightly. (cont...)

The Day Ahead

FOMC meeting minutes from December are due at 2:00 PM ET, offering insights into policymakers' views on the pace of rate cuts amid recent strong GDP data. Pending home sales data at 10:00 AM ET may reveal housing market resilience, influencing Fed easing signals. EIA weekly crude oil inventories at 10:30 AM ET could impact oil prices, with consensus expecting a draw of 1.27 million barrels.

Other Economic Notes

Global hegemonies like the US and China are exacerbating trade imbalances through tariffs and mercantilist policies, harming developing countries' export competitiveness. India's economy defied odds with 8.2% Q2 GDP growth, supported by reforms and low inflation, attracting global investment despite external shocks.

Fed Watch

In the rate cutting cycle, recent GDP strength and moderating inflation suggest a slower pace of cuts in 2026 to avoid overheating, with fewer reductions priced for the year. Fed officials emphasize data dependence, favoring caution as geopolitical tensions add uncertainty to growth forecasts. Dovish expectations persist, but hawkish data like robust consumer spending could tilt toward pauses if inflation risks reemerge.


Source: https://robomacro.com/Research_Notes/US_Macro_Daily_20251229.html