| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,861.90 | +0.18% |
| Nasdaq | 23,235.63 | -0.03% |
| Spot VIX | 15.18 | +4.62% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.47 | -2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.17 | -3 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1681 | -0.31% |
| USD/JPY | 156.62 | -0.16% |
| GBP/USD | 1.346 | +0.04% |
| WTI Oil | 57.42 | 0.00% |
| Gold | 4,413.41 | +1.88% |
| Bitcoin | 92,925.88 | +1.56% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Kashkari | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 48.20 | 48.30 | 10:00 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 44 | - | 10:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 08:00 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 1.7m | - | 16:30 |
Fed's Kashkari delivered a speech emphasizing monetary policy's role in lowering inflation, cautioning that further rate cuts could take time as officials assess economic data. Markets closed mixed, with equities edging lower as energy and materials sectors advanced while consumer staples and discretionary declined; S&P 500 closed at 6858.47 and Nasdaq at 23235.63, reflecting calm conditions with VIX at 15.18. Bond yields rose modestly, with 10-year Treasury at 4.17% and 2-year at 3.47%, as the dollar firmed against EUR/USD at 1.1681 and USD/JPY at 156.62. Commodities saw WTI oil at 57.42, gold at 4413.41, and Bitcoin at 92925.88, with subdued volatility across assets.
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10am, expected at 48.3 versus previous 48.2, may reveal contractionary trends in production amid AI productivity gains. Fed's Barkin speech at 8am could highlight data dependence, potentially tilting toward fewer cuts if labor stabilizes. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 4:30pm, with prior draw of 1.7 million barrels, may influence energy prices and broader inflation expectations. (cont...)
UK's think tank warned of a 'zombie apocalypse' in unproductive firms, potentially boosting productivity growth through market purging. India's economy faces policy gridlock from weak tax buoyancy, threatening fiscal space amid high growth projections. Global AI innovation, including new frameworks for inclusion, promises efficiency gains but risks amplifying inequalities.
In the rate cutting cycle, recent data suggests moderation in inflation and labor stabilization, favoring fewer cuts in 2026 at a slower pace to sustain growth. Kashkari's cautious optimism on inflation nearing 2% tilts neutral, with markets pricing shallower easing unless geopolitical risks escalate. Barkin's upcoming speech may emphasize data-driven adjustments, potentially supporting more cuts if employment weakens further.