US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Manufacturing Misses in Calm
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,907.90 | +0.67% |
| Nasdaq | 23,395.82 | +0.69% |
| Spot VIX | 15.13 | +1.54% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.47 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.19 | +2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1708 | -0.14% |
| USD/JPY | 156.46 | +0.08% |
| GBP/USD | 1.353 | -0.14% |
| WTI Oil | 57.32 | 0.00% |
| Gold | 4,453.30 | +0.16% |
| Bitcoin | 93,788.96 | -0.09% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 48.20 | 48.30 | 47.90 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 44 | - | 44.90 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 08:00 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 1.7m | 1.2m | 16:30 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | - | - | 07:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | -32,000 | 45,000 | 08:15 |
| Services Sector PMI | 52.60 | 52.30 | 10:00 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.7m | 7.6m | 10:00 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 0.20 | -1.20 | 10:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.9m | - | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 5.8m | - | 10:30 |
- ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted to 47.9, missing consensus of 48.3 and signaling sector weakness despite prior resilience.
- Geopolitical shifts in Venezuela faded quickly, with oil prices declining amid US plans for production boosts.
- Fed's Barkin speech today may reinforce data dependence, potentially stabilizing cut expectations.
Yesterday's Recap
ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 48.2, missing consensus expectations of 48.3 and marking continued contraction in the sector.
ISM Manufacturing Employment edged up to 44.9 from 44.0, with consensus blank, offering mixed signals on labor dynamics.
Fed's Kashkari emphasized cautious optimism on inflation nearing 2%, favoring measured rate cuts amid data assessment.
Markets traded calmly with VIX at 15.13 below 16, equities steady at S&P 500 6907.90, bonds yields flat at 10-year 4.19%, and FX stable with EUR/USD at 1.1708.
Commodities saw WTI oil at 57.32, gold at 4453.30, and Bitcoin at 93788.96, reflecting subdued volatility across assets.
The Day Ahead
Fed's Barkin speech at 8am may clarify rate cut timing, potentially tilting toward fewer cuts if labor data stabilizes.
NY Fed Bill Purchases at 9:20am and ADP Employment Change at 8:15am, expected at 45000 versus prior -32000, will gauge labor resilience.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 4:30pm, prior draw 1700000 barrels, could influence energy prices and inflation outlook. (cont...)
