| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,907.90 | +0.67% |
| Nasdaq | 23,395.82 | +0.69% |
| Spot VIX | 15.13 | +1.54% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.47 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.19 | +2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1708 | -0.14% |
| USD/JPY | 156.46 | +0.08% |
| GBP/USD | 1.353 | -0.14% |
| WTI Oil | 57.32 | 0.00% |
| Gold | 4,453.30 | +0.16% |
| Bitcoin | 93,788.96 | -0.09% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 48.20 | 48.30 | 47.90 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 44 | - | 44.90 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 08:00 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 1.7m | 1.2m | 16:30 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | - | - | 07:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | -32,000 | 45,000 | 08:15 |
| Services Sector PMI | 52.60 | 52.30 | 10:00 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.7m | 7.6m | 10:00 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 0.20 | -1.20 | 10:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.9m | - | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 5.8m | - | 10:30 |
ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 48.2, missing consensus expectations of 48.3 and marking continued contraction in the sector. ISM Manufacturing Employment edged up to 44.9 from 44.0, with consensus blank, offering mixed signals on labor dynamics. Fed's Kashkari emphasized cautious optimism on inflation nearing 2%, favoring measured rate cuts amid data assessment. Markets traded calmly with VIX at 15.13 below 16, equities steady at S&P 500 6907.90, bonds yields flat at 10-year 4.19%, and FX stable with EUR/USD at 1.1708. Commodities saw WTI oil at 57.32, gold at 4453.30, and Bitcoin at 93788.96, reflecting subdued volatility across assets.
Fed's Barkin speech at 8am may clarify rate cut timing, potentially tilting toward fewer cuts if labor data stabilizes. NY Fed Bill Purchases at 9:20am and ADP Employment Change at 8:15am, expected at 45000 versus prior -32000, will gauge labor resilience. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 4:30pm, prior draw 1700000 barrels, could influence energy prices and inflation outlook. (cont...)
Energy scarcity is reshaping global economies, with uneven downturns in 2026 driven by resource limits and rising debt. Vietnam's 8.02% GDP growth highlights regional resilience amid US tariff pressures. US economy faces bumpy roads from weak nominal growth and trade uncertainties, despite strong real GDP expansion.
In the rate cutting cycle, ISM misses and labor data suggest moderation, favoring fewer cuts at a slower pace to sustain growth. Kashkari's speech tilts neutral, with markets pricing shallower easing unless geopolitical risks intensify. Barkin's comments may emphasize data dependence, supporting more cuts if employment weakens further.