US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Venezuela Fade Fuels Oil Dip
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,948.90 | +0.60% |
| Nasdaq | 23,547.17 | +0.65% |
| Spot VIX | 15.15 | +2.71% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.47 | -0 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.15 | -2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1689 | +0.02% |
| USD/JPY | 156.56 | -0.06% |
| GBP/USD | 1.350 | +0.01% |
| WTI Oil | 58.32 | +1.74% |
| Gold | 4,457.65 | -0.86% |
| Bitcoin | 92,103.71 | -1.72% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | - |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 1.7m | 1.2m | -2.8m |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | - | - | 07:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | -32,000 | 47,000 | 08:15 |
| Services Sector PMI | 52.60 | 52.30 | 10:00 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.7m | 7.6m | 10:00 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 0.20 | -1.20 | 10:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.9m | 1.1m | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 5.8m | 2.9m | 10:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 16:10 |
| Trade Balance | -52.8m | -58.9m | 08:30 |
| Exports Level | 289.3m | - | 08:30 |
- API crude oil stocks drew 2.8M barrels, the largest since July, easing supply concerns amid Venezuela tensions.
- Today's ADP employment change expected at 47K may reveal labor strength, influencing Fed cut expectations.
- Bond yields hold steady as geopolitical risks subside, supporting calmer equity trading.
Yesterday's Recap
API weekly crude oil stocks fell 2.8M barrels, a larger-than-expected draw, amid reports of U.S. plans to boost Venezuelan production, pressuring WTI prices lower.
Fed's Barkin speech highlighted data-dependent policy, noting inflation progress but cautioning on premature cuts, tilting dovish.
Markets traded calmly with VIX at 15.15 below 16, equities steady at S&P 500 6948.90 and Nasdaq 23547.17, bonds flat at 10-year 4.15%, and FX stable with EUR/USD at 1.1689.
Commodities saw WTI oil dip to 58.32, gold at 4457.65, and Bitcoin at 92103.71, reflecting subdued volatility.
The Day Ahead
ADP employment change at 08:15 expected at 47K versus previous -32K, will gauge labor resilience ahead of Friday's payrolls.
Services sector PMI at 10:00 consensus 52.3 may signal economic momentum, influencing equity sentiment.
Fed's Bowman speech at 16:10 could clarify cut pace, potentially stabilizing yields.
