| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,926.30 | -0.33% |
| Nasdaq | 23,584.28 | +0.16% |
| Spot VIX | 15.72 | +2.21% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.48 | 0 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.17 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1677 | -0.02% |
| USD/JPY | 156.75 | -0.02% |
| GBP/USD | 1.345 | -0.12% |
| WTI Oil | 57.13 | -2.04% |
| Gold | 4,427.91 | -0.64% |
| Bitcoin | 90,082.51 | -1.31% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.32 | - | 6.25 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.31 | - | 6.32 |
| ADP Employment Change | -29,000 | 47,000 | 41,000 |
| Services Sector PMI | 52.60 | 52.30 | 54.40 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.4m | 7.6m | 7.1m |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 0.20 | -1.20 | -1.30 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.9m | 1.1m | -3.8m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 5.8m | 2.9m | 7.7m |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -52.8m | -58.9m | 08:30 |
| Exports Level | 289.3m | - | 08:30 |
| Imports Level | 342.1m | - | 08:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 199,000 | 210,000 | 08:30 |
| Nonfarm Productivity Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | 3.30 | 3 | 08:30 |
| Unit Labour Costs Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | 1 | 1 | 08:30 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6640m | - | 16:30 |
| Building Permits Prel | 1.3m | 1.4m | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Prel | - | - | 08:30 |
ADP employment change came in at 41,000, below consensus of 47,000, reflecting slower hiring amid a weakening labor market. Services sector PMI surged to 54.4 from 52.6, beating expectations of 52.3 and signaling robust expansion in business activity. JOLTs job openings fell to 7.146M, missing consensus of 7.6M, while factory orders declined 1.3% m/m versus expected -1.2%. Fed's Bowman speech emphasized data-dependent policy, tilting toward cautious cuts without signaling urgency. Markets traded calmly with VIX at 15.72 below 16, equities steady at S&P 500 6926.30 and Nasdaq 23584.28, bonds flat at 10-year 4.17%, FX stable with EUR/USD at 1.1677, and commodities subdued with WTI oil at 57.13, gold at 4427.91, and Bitcoin at 90082.51. (cont...)
Trade balance data at 08:30, with exports and imports expected to influence Q4 GDP revisions. Weekly jobless claims at 08:30, consensus at 210K versus prior 199K, may reveal employment trends ahead of Friday's payrolls. Nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs at 08:30, expected at 3% q/q and 1% q/q respectively, could impact wage inflation views.
Venezuela's oil deal raised energy sector optimism, potentially boosting US supply and pressuring global prices. Turkey's strong economic growth fueled optimism for 2026, with exports hitting records amid stable inflation. US housing sales declined 11.2% YoY, highlighting affordability challenges despite falling prices.
In the rate cutting cycle, mixed labor data and PMI beat suggest moderation, favoring fewer cuts at a slower pace. Bowman's speech reinforced data dependence, tilting neutral with shallower easing priced unless employment weakens further. Markets expect 2026 cuts to proceed cautiously, contingent on stable inflation and geopolitical calm.