US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Trade Surplus Boosts Fed Cuts
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,925.50 | -0.01% |
| Nasdaq | 23,480.02 | -0.44% |
| Spot VIX | 15.70 | +1.62% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.51 | +2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.19 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1645 | -0.05% |
| USD/JPY | 157.63 | +0.43% |
| GBP/USD | 1.341 | -0.20% |
| WTI Oil | 55.99 | -2.00% |
| Gold | 4,471.67 | -0.15% |
| Bitcoin | 90,460.31 | -0.62% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -48.1m | -58.9m | -29.4m |
| Exports Level | 294.2m | - | 302m |
| Imports Level | 342.4m | - | 331.4m |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 200,000 | 210,000 | 208,000 |
| Nonfarm Productivity Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | 4.10 | 3 | 4.90 |
| Unit Labour Costs Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | -2.90 | 1 | -1.90 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | - |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6640m | - | 6570m |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits Prel | 1.3m | 1.4m | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Prel | - | - | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.3m | 1.3m | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | - | - | 08:30 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 64,000 | 60,000 | 08:30 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.60 | 4.50 | 08:30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.10 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.50 | 3.60 | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -2.30 | - | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 08:30 |
- Trade deficit narrowed sharply to $29.4B from $48.1B, with exports surging and imports moderating, signaling stronger economic resilience.
- Nonfarm productivity rose 4.9% q/q, beating consensus and aiding Fed easing prospects.
- Calm markets saw VIX at 15.70, with equities steady and oil dipping on eased tensions.
Yesterday's Recap
The US trade deficit contracted significantly to $29.4B from $48.1B, beating consensus expectations of $58.9B, driven by a 2.6% rise in exports to $302B and a 3.2% drop in imports to $331.4B.
Weekly jobless claims increased to 208K, slightly above consensus of 210K but from a prior low of 200K, indicating steady labor market cooling.
Nonfarm productivity preliminary q/q rose to 4.9%, surpassing consensus of 3% and prior 4.1%, while unit labor costs fell to -1.9% versus expected 1%.
Markets traded calmly with VIX at 15.70 below 16, equities flat at S&P 500 6925.50 and Nasdaq 23480.02, bonds yields steady at 2-year 3.51% and 10-year 4.19%, FX mixed with EUR/USD at 1.1645 and GBP/USD at 1.341, commodities subdued with WTI oil at 55.99, gold at 4471.67, and Bitcoin at 90460.31. (cont...)
