| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,925.50 | -0.01% |
| Nasdaq | 23,480.02 | -0.44% |
| Spot VIX | 15.70 | +1.62% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.51 | +2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.19 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1645 | -0.05% |
| USD/JPY | 157.63 | +0.43% |
| GBP/USD | 1.341 | -0.20% |
| WTI Oil | 55.99 | -2.00% |
| Gold | 4,471.67 | -0.15% |
| Bitcoin | 90,460.31 | -0.62% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -48.1m | -58.9m | -29.4m |
| Exports Level | 294.2m | - | 302m |
| Imports Level | 342.4m | - | 331.4m |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 200,000 | 210,000 | 208,000 |
| Nonfarm Productivity Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | 4.10 | 3 | 4.90 |
| Unit Labour Costs Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | -2.90 | 1 | -1.90 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | - |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6640m | - | 6570m |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits Prel | 1.3m | 1.4m | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Prel | - | - | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.3m | 1.3m | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | - | - | 08:30 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 64,000 | 60,000 | 08:30 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.60 | 4.50 | 08:30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.10 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.50 | 3.60 | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -2.30 | - | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 08:30 |
The US trade deficit contracted significantly to $29.4B from $48.1B, beating consensus expectations of $58.9B, driven by a 2.6% rise in exports to $302B and a 3.2% drop in imports to $331.4B. Weekly jobless claims increased to 208K, slightly above consensus of 210K but from a prior low of 200K, indicating steady labor market cooling. Nonfarm productivity preliminary q/q rose to 4.9%, surpassing consensus of 3% and prior 4.1%, while unit labor costs fell to -1.9% versus expected 1%. Markets traded calmly with VIX at 15.70 below 16, equities flat at S&P 500 6925.50 and Nasdaq 23480.02, bonds yields steady at 2-year 3.51% and 10-year 4.19%, FX mixed with EUR/USD at 1.1645 and GBP/USD at 1.341, commodities subdued with WTI oil at 55.99, gold at 4471.67, and Bitcoin at 90460.31. (cont...)
Building permits and housing starts at 8:30am are expected at 1350K and 1330K respectively, potentially revealing construction momentum amid housing affordability pressures. Payroll jobs growth at 8:30am consensus 60000 versus prior 64000, with unemployment rate at 4.5% and wage growth at 0.3%, could influence Fed cut timing. No major Fed speeches today, but data may reinforce a cautious easing path.
Global food prices declined for a fourth month, easing inflationary pressures on emerging markets. India's economy risks higher tariffs and weak recovery, impacting US trade policies. China's green economy faces challenges in energy transition and overcapacity.
In the rate cutting cycle, stronger trade data and productivity beats support more cuts, potentially faster if inflation cools further. Recent labor stability suggests fewer cuts overall, with markets pricing shallower 2026 easing. Fed will monitor data for shifts, favoring data dependence over aggressive moves.