US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Data Tilts Hawkish on Cuts
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,953.20 | +0.26% |
| Nasdaq | 23,530.02 | +0.25% |
| Spot VIX | 15.50 | -2.15% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.57 | -0 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.17 | -0 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1620 | +0.14% |
| USD/JPY | 158.09 | -0.35% |
| GBP/USD | 1.341 | +0.23% |
| WTI Oil | 62.02 | +1.42% |
| Gold | 4,609.92 | -0.12% |
| Bitcoin | 95,283.74 | -0.31% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Fed Services Activity Index | -20 | - | 08:30 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | 09:15 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 39 | 40 | 10:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 11:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Jefferson | - | - | 15:30 |
- Retail sales beat expectations with 0.6% m/m rise, signaling resilient consumer demand despite high rates.
- Cathie Wood forecasts US economic boom in 2026, citing deregulation and productivity gains.
- Oil prices steadied below $60 amid easing Iran tensions, while Bitcoin slipped on regulatory hurdles.
Yesterday's Recap
Retail sales surged 0.6% m/m, exceeding the 0.4% consensus and highlighting robust consumer spending across ex-autos and control groups.
Producer prices moderated, with PPI at 0.1% and core PPI flat, easing upstream inflation pressures.
The current account deficit narrowed to -$226.4B from -$249.2B, better than the -$238.4B estimate, reflecting stronger trade balances.
Fed's Paulson reiterated data-dependent policy, offering no new rate cues amid mixed economic signals.
Markets traded calmly, with the S&P 500 up 0.26% to 6944.47, VIX at 15.50, and 10-year yields steady at 4.17%.
The Day Ahead
NY Fed Services Activity Index at 8:30am is expected to show modest improvement, with consensus at -20.0.
Industrial Production at 9:15am may rise 0.1% m/m, matching forecasts at 0.1%, gauging manufacturing momentum.
Fed's Bowman and Jefferson speak at 11:00am and 3:30pm respectively, potentially clarifying data influences on rate paths.
