US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

January 19, 2026 robomacro.com

Markets Steady Amid Data Calm

Prior Close
Asset Level Days Change
S&P 500 6,946.60 -0.09%
Nasdaq 23,515.39 -0.06%
Spot VIX 19.29 +21.63%
2 Year Bond Yield 3.59 +2 bps
10 Year Bond Yield 4.23 +5 bps
EUR/USD 1.1622 +0.19%
USD/JPY 157.99 -0.06%
GBP/USD 1.341 +0.19%
WTI Oil 59.19 -4.56%
Gold 4,665.64 +1.54%
Bitcoin 93,051.19 -0.62%

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available
Chart of the Day

Today's Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
ADP Employment Change Weekly11,750-08:15
API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks5.3m-16:30
  • ADP employment rose to 11,750, surpassing expectations and signaling labor market resilience.
  • Geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela eased, stabilizing oil prices below $60.
  • Yields edged higher as Fed chair uncertainty lingered, with VIX at 19.29 reflecting mild volatility.

Friday's Recap

ADP employment change came in at 11,750, beating the consensus estimate, indicating continued strength in the labor market despite ongoing rate cuts.
API weekly crude oil stocks data showed a draw of 5.27M barrels, aligning with expectations and supporting steady oil prices around $59.
Markets traded calmly overall, with the S&P 500 dipping 0.1% to 6946.60 and Nasdaq down 0.1% to 23515.39, as investors digested mixed economic signals.
Bond yields rose modestly, with the 2-year up to 3.59% and 10-year to 4.23%, amid Fed chair speculation.
The USD firmed against the euro at 1.1622 and yen at 157.99, while gold climbed to 4665.64 and Bitcoin held at 93051.19.
No major Fed speeches yesterday, but prior comments reinforced data-dependent easing. (cont...)

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US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

January 19, 2026 robomacro.com
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The Day Ahead

CPI data at 8:30am is expected at 0.2% m/m, with consensus at 0.2%, closely watched for inflation trends.
Fed Chair Powell speaks at 2pm, potentially clarifying the pace of rate cuts amid labor resilience.
API weekly crude oil stocks at 4:30pm may show further draws, influencing energy markets.

Other Economic Notes

Canada's tariff reductions with China signal shifting trade dynamics, potentially easing global supply chain pressures.
Tech ad revenue expansions, like OpenAI's, highlight AI monetization trends amid profit concerns.
Venezuela's oil reserves under US scrutiny could boost crude supplies but heighten geopolitical risks.

Fed Watch

In the rate-cutting cycle, resilient ADP data supports fewer cuts in 2025, tilting hawkish on pace.
Powell may emphasize data dependence, favoring slower easing over faster reductions.
Markets pricing in fewer cuts reflect confidence in economic stability, though inflation monitoring keeps cuts on the table.

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