US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Data Beats Support Rate Cuts
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,958.90 | +0.53% |
| Nasdaq | 23,601.36 | +0.43% |
| Spot VIX | 16.02 | -0.80% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.60 | -0 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.22 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1870 | -0.10% |
| USD/JPY | 154.53 | +0.29% |
| GBP/USD | 1.368 | +0.01% |
| WTI Oil | 61.07 | +2.88% |
| Gold | 5,086.64 | +1.50% |
| Bitcoin | 88,373.73 | +0.14% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | -2.10 | 3.70 | 5.30 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.24 | - | -0.42 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.42 | - | -0.04 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | - |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -11.30 | - | -1.20 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 8,000 | - | 08:15 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.30 | 1.20 | 09:00 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 89.10 | - | 10:00 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -7 | -8 | 10:00 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -11 | - | 10:00 |
| Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index | -6 | - | 10:00 |
| Dallas Fed Services Index | -3.30 | - | 10:30 |
| Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 0.10 | - | 10:30 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 3.0m | 1.4m | 16:30 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.16 | - | 07:00 |
- Durable Goods Orders surged 5.3% month-over-month, exceeding 3.7% consensus and signaling manufacturing resilience amid winter disruptions.
- Today's ADP employment and Richmond Fed data will test labor market strength ahead of Fed policy decisions.
- Fed cutting cycle gains traction, with markets pricing fewer cuts if economic data holds firm.
Yesterday's Recap
Durable Goods Orders rose 5.3% month-over-month, beating the 3.7% consensus and reflecting robust manufacturing activity despite winter storm impacts.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved to -0.04 from -0.42, signaling easing economic contraction.
Markets traded calmly with VIX at 16.02, S&P 500 up to 6958.90, and Nasdaq at 23601.36, as equities digested positive data.
Bond yields stabilized, with 2-year at 3.60% and 10-year at 4.22%, amid contained inflation expectations.
Commodities advanced modestly, with WTI oil at 61.07 and gold hitting 5086.64 on geopolitical tensions.
Bitcoin edged higher to 88373.73, while FX showed limited moves, with EUR/USD at 1.1870 and GBP/USD at 1.368.
The Day Ahead
ADP Employment Change at 08:15, expected around 8,000, will provide early payroll insights ahead of official jobs data.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 09:00, forecasted at 1.2%, may reveal housing market trends.
Consumer Confidence at 10:00, consensus around 89.1, could gauge sentiment amid tariff risks.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00, expected at -8, will assess regional economic health. (cont...)
