US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Fed Poised to Hold Rates
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,986.50 | +0.40% |
| Nasdaq | 23,817.10 | +0.91% |
| Spot VIX | 16.25 | -0.61% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.58 | -0 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.25 | 0 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1971 | -0.49% |
| USD/JPY | 152.66 | +0.18% |
| GBP/USD | 1.378 | -0.43% |
| WTI Oil | 60.63 | -0.72% |
| Gold | 5,257.76 | +1.48% |
| Bitcoin | 89,287.73 | +0.19% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 8,000 | - | 7,750 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 94.20 | - | 84.50 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -7 | -8 | -6 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -11 | - | -5 |
| Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index | -6 | - | -3 |
| Dallas Fed Services Index | -5 | - | 2.70 |
| Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 0 | - | 7.80 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 3.0m | 1.4m | -250,000 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.16 | - | 07:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 3.6m | - | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 6.0m | - | 10:30 |
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 14:00 |
| Fed Press Conference | - | - | 14:30 |
| Trade Balance | -29.4m | -40.5m | 08:30 |
| Exports Level | 302m | - | 08:30 |
| Imports Level | 331.4m | - | 08:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 200,000 | 205,000 | 08:30 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
- Regional Fed indices beat expectations, signaling manufacturing and services resilience despite mixed ADP jobs data.
- Fed rate decision and press conference today may clarify cutting pace amid stable inflation.
- Gold surges past $5,000, driven by dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions.
Yesterday's Recap
ADP employment change came in at 7,750, slightly below the prior week's 8,000 but still robust.
S&P/Case-Shiller home prices rose 1.4% year-over-year, beating consensus and previous figures to highlight housing strength.
Consumer confidence dropped to 84.5 from 94.2, missing expectations amid economic uncertainty.
Richmond Fed manufacturing index improved to -6 from -7, exceeding forecasts, while shipments and services revenues also beat.
Dallas Fed services indices surged, with the overall index at 2.7 and revenues at 7.8, both surpassing priors.
API crude oil stocks drew down 250,000 barrels versus expected builds.
Markets traded calmly with VIX at 16.25, equities stable, bond yields holding, and gold climbing to 5,257.76 as safe-haven demand rose.
No Fed speeches occurred, but prior data reinforced a cautious stance. (cont...)
