| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,987.00 | +0.01% |
| Nasdaq | 23,857.45 | +0.17% |
| Spot VIX | 16.71 | +2.20% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.58 | 0 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.26 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1949 | +0.03% |
| USD/JPY | 153.44 | +0.04% |
| GBP/USD | 1.379 | -0.04% |
| WTI Oil | 62.39 | +2.90% |
| Gold | 5,510.23 | +1.67% |
| Bitcoin | 87,638.08 | -1.71% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.16 | - | 6.24 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 3.6m | 1.8m | -2.3m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 6.0m | 1.3m | 224,000 |
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Fed Press Conference | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -29.4m | -40.5m | 08:30 |
| Exports Level | 302m | - | 08:30 |
| Imports Level | 331.4m | - | 08:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 200,000 | 205,000 | 08:30 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -1.30 | 1.60 | 10:00 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6590m | - | 16:30 |
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
| Core PPI Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
| Chicago PMI | 43.50 | 44 | 09:45 |
The Fed held interest rates steady at 3.75% in a widely anticipated decision, with Chair Powell highlighting solid economic expansion and stabilized unemployment at 4.4%. EIA crude oil inventories fell 2.296 million barrels, exceeding the 1.75 million draw consensus, while gasoline stocks rose modestly to 224,000 barrels against expectations of 1.3 million. Mortgage rates edged up to 6.24% from 6.16%, reflecting ongoing affordability challenges. Markets traded calmly with VIX at 16.71, S&P 500 at 6987.00, and gold at 5510.23, as equities digested the Fed's pause. Bond yields held steady at 3.58% for 2-year and 4.26% for 10-year, with FX showing limited volatility and bitcoin at 87638.08.
Trade balance data at 8:30am is expected at -$40.5 billion, potentially pressuring the dollar if deficits widen further. Weekly jobless claims at 8:30am, forecasted at 205,000, will gauge labor market trends ahead of payrolls. Factory orders at 10:00am, consensus 1.6%, may reveal manufacturing momentum. Producer Price Index at 8:30am, expected at 0.2%, will monitor inflation pressures. (cont...)
Housing market optimism persists despite rate hikes, with inventory gains and price moderation supporting buyer interest. Trump's economic rhetoric touts booming growth, yet data obscures wealth disparities favoring top earners. Global immigration policies diverge, with Spain embracing migrants for workforce needs while US tensions escalate.
In the rate-cutting cycle, the Fed's hold signals caution on pace, favoring fewer cuts in 2025 amid steady inflation. Powell's emphasis on data dependence tilts dovish for slower reductions if employment stabilizes further. Markets price two cuts this year, but recent beats support potential pauses over aggressive easing. No speeches today, but press conference reinforced gradual approach to balance growth and price stability.