US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Deficit Surge, Warsh Nominee
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,963.08 | -0.13% |
| Nasdaq | 23,628.28 | -0.24% |
| Spot VIX | 17.44 | +3.32% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.55 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.25 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1900 | -0.54% |
| USD/JPY | 154.61 | +0.98% |
| GBP/USD | 1.374 | -0.49% |
| WTI Oil | 63.21 | +1.31% |
| Gold | 5,032.36 | -6.40% |
| Bitcoin | 83,329.04 | -1.41% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -29.2m | -40.5m | -56.8m |
| Exports Level | 303m | - | 292.1m |
| Imports Level | 332.1m | - | 348.9m |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 210,000 | 205,000 | 209,000 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | - |
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -59.1m | - | -86.9m |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -1.20 | 1.60 | 2.70 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6590m | - | 6590m |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
| Core PPI Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
| Chicago PMI | 42.70 | 44 | 09:45 |
| Speech by Fed's Musalem | - | - | 13:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 17:00 |
- US trade deficit widened to $56.8B in December, far exceeding $40.5B consensus, driven by weaker exports and stronger imports.
- Factory orders jumped 2.7%, beating 1.6% forecasts, signaling manufacturing resilience despite global headwinds.
- Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair could tilt policy toward slower cuts, pressuring equities and boosting the dollar.
Yesterday's Recap
The US trade deficit exploded to $56.8B in December, well above the $40.5B consensus, as exports fell to $292.1B and imports rose to $348.9B, reflecting tariff disruptions and weaker global demand.
Factory orders surged 2.7% month-over-month, surpassing 1.6% expectations and reversing November's 1.2% decline, highlighting robust industrial activity.
Weekly jobless claims ticked up to 209k, edging above 205k consensus, while the Federal Reserve balance sheet held steady at $6.59T.
Markets remained calm with VIX at 17.44, S&P 500 at 6963.08, and Nasdaq at 23628.28, as equities digested mixed data without major swings.
Bond yields stabilized at 3.55% for 2-year and 4.25% for 10-year, FX showed limited volatility with EUR/USD at 1.1900, and gold slipped to 5032.36 amid dollar strength. (cont...)
