| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,963.08 | -0.13% |
| Nasdaq | 23,628.28 | -0.24% |
| Spot VIX | 17.44 | +3.32% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.55 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.25 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1900 | -0.54% |
| USD/JPY | 154.61 | +0.98% |
| GBP/USD | 1.374 | -0.49% |
| WTI Oil | 63.21 | +1.31% |
| Gold | 5,032.36 | -6.40% |
| Bitcoin | 83,329.04 | -1.41% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -29.2m | -40.5m | -56.8m |
| Exports Level | 303m | - | 292.1m |
| Imports Level | 332.1m | - | 348.9m |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 210,000 | 205,000 | 209,000 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | - |
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -59.1m | - | -86.9m |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -1.20 | 1.60 | 2.70 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6590m | - | 6590m |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
| Core PPI Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
| Chicago PMI | 42.70 | 44 | 09:45 |
| Speech by Fed's Musalem | - | - | 13:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 17:00 |
The US trade deficit exploded to $56.8B in December, well above the $40.5B consensus, as exports fell to $292.1B and imports rose to $348.9B, reflecting tariff disruptions and weaker global demand. Factory orders surged 2.7% month-over-month, surpassing 1.6% expectations and reversing November's 1.2% decline, highlighting robust industrial activity. Weekly jobless claims ticked up to 209k, edging above 205k consensus, while the Federal Reserve balance sheet held steady at $6.59T. Markets remained calm with VIX at 17.44, S&P 500 at 6963.08, and Nasdaq at 23628.28, as equities digested mixed data without major swings. Bond yields stabilized at 3.55% for 2-year and 4.25% for 10-year, FX showed limited volatility with EUR/USD at 1.1900, and gold slipped to 5032.36 amid dollar strength. (cont...)
Producer Price Index at 8:30am is expected at 0.2%, with core PPI also at 0.2%, providing fresh inflation insights ahead of Fed decisions. Chicago PMI at 9:45am, forecasted at 44, will gauge regional manufacturing sentiment. Fed's Musalem speaks at 1:30pm, while Bowman addresses at 5pm, potentially clarifying rate cut timing.
Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair introduces a hawkish tilt, favoring fewer rate cuts despite calls for faster easing. Euro zone GDP grew 0.3% in Q4 2025, beating forecasts, offsetting trade uncertainties from US tariffs.
In the rate-cutting cycle, mixed data like the widened trade deficit supports fewer cuts in 2025, prioritizing inflation stability over aggressive easing. Warsh's nomination could slow the pace, tilting hawkish if he emphasizes productivity-driven inflation control. Markets now price cautious reductions, with potential pauses if economic resilience persists. Recent Fed holds reinforce data dependence, favoring gradual moves to balance growth and prices.