US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Fed Hawks Eye Slower Cuts
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,985.40 | +0.51% |
| Nasdaq | 23,592.11 | +0.56% |
| Spot VIX | 16.25 | -0.55% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.59 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.29 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1966 | -0.10% |
| USD/JPY | 155.92 | +0.22% |
| GBP/USD | 1.366 | -0.06% |
| WTI Oil | 65.21 | -0.32% |
| Gold | 4,902.83 | +5.21% |
| Bitcoin | 77,977.51 | -0.88% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 4 To 12 Months | - | - | - |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 47.90 | 48.50 | 52.60 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 44.80 | - | 48.10 |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | - |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 08:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -250,000 | - | 16:30 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.24 | - | 07:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | 41,000 | 40,000 | 08:15 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
| Services Sector PMI | 54.40 | 53.50 | 10:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -2.3m | - | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 224,000 | - | 10:30 |
| Fed Cook Speech | - | - | 18:30 |
- ISM manufacturing PMI surged to 52.6, beating expectations and signaling robust factory expansion.
- Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination fueled hawkish bets, delaying rate cut timelines.
- Commodities slumped amid US tariffs, pressuring global trade and emerging markets.
Yesterday's Recap
ISM manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6 from 47.9, far exceeding consensus of 48.5, driven by strong output and new orders as tariff uncertainties eased.
Fed's Bostic highlighted data-driven policy, noting inflation pressures from global supply chains.
Markets calmed with VIX at 16.25, but yields edged up 2bps on 10-year Treasuries to 4.29%, while S&P 500 held steady near 6985.
EUR/USD dipped to 1.1966 as dollar gains persisted, and gold retreated 2% to 4902 on Fed hawkishness.
Bitcoin stabilized at 77977 after recent volatility.
The Day Ahead
ADP employment change due at 8:15am, expected at 40000, offering early labor insights amid delayed January jobs report.
Services PMI at 10am projected at 53.5, with Fed Barkin speaking at 8am on economic outlook.
EIA crude stocks at 10:30am and Fed Cook speech at 6:30pm will gauge inflation and policy signals.
