| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,985.40 | +0.51% |
| Nasdaq | 23,592.11 | +0.56% |
| Spot VIX | 16.25 | -0.55% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.59 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.29 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1966 | -0.10% |
| USD/JPY | 155.92 | +0.22% |
| GBP/USD | 1.366 | -0.06% |
| WTI Oil | 65.21 | -0.32% |
| Gold | 4,902.83 | +5.21% |
| Bitcoin | 77,977.51 | -0.88% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 4 To 12 Months | - | - | - |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 47.90 | 48.50 | 52.60 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 44.80 | - | 48.10 |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 08:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -250,000 | - | 16:30 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.24 | - | 07:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | 41,000 | 40,000 | 08:15 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
| Services Sector PMI | 54.40 | 53.50 | 10:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -2.3m | - | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 224,000 | - | 10:30 |
| Fed Cook Speech | - | - | 18:30 |
ISM manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6 from 47.9, far exceeding consensus of 48.5, driven by strong output and new orders as tariff uncertainties eased. Fed's Bostic highlighted data-driven policy, noting inflation pressures from global supply chains. Markets calmed with VIX at 16.25, but yields edged up 2bps on 10-year Treasuries to 4.29%, while S&P 500 held steady near 6985. EUR/USD dipped to 1.1966 as dollar gains persisted, and gold retreated 2% to 4902 on Fed hawkishness. Bitcoin stabilized at 77977 after recent volatility.
ADP employment change due at 8:15am, expected at 40000, offering early labor insights amid delayed January jobs report. Services PMI at 10am projected at 53.5, with Fed Barkin speaking at 8am on economic outlook. EIA crude stocks at 10:30am and Fed Cook speech at 6:30pm will gauge inflation and policy signals.
Data integrity concerns escalated as BLS delayed January jobs report due to government shutdown, risking distorted Fed decisions. Global trade tensions intensified with EU's 'Made in Europe' push against Chinese imports, straining supply chains.
In a rate-cutting cycle, recent data like ISM's beat supports gradual easing, but Warsh's nomination leans hawkish, favoring fewer cuts in 2025. Markets price only two rate reductions this year, likely post-June confirmation. Powell's dovish tone contrasts with Warsh's tighter stance, heightening uncertainty.