| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,925.70 | -0.85% |
| Nasdaq | 23,255.19 | -1.43% |
| Spot VIX | 17.87 | -0.72% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.59 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.29 | +2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1809 | -0.11% |
| USD/JPY | 156.80 | +0.69% |
| GBP/USD | 1.371 | +0.07% |
| WTI Oil | 62.14 | -4.71% |
| Gold | 5,023.49 | +1.56% |
| Bitcoin | 75,766.25 | +0.14% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -247,000 | 700,000 | -11.1m |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.24 | - | 07:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | 41,000 | 48,000 | 08:15 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
| Services Sector PMI | 54.40 | 53.50 | 10:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -2.3m | -2m | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 224,000 | - | 10:30 |
| Fed Cook Speech | - | - | 18:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 209,000 | 212,000 | 08:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | 10:50 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | - | - | 16:30 |
Fed Governor Barkin spoke on inflation progress, noting fog lifting but rates at neutral high end. Equities rallied modestly with Nasdaq down 1.43% to 23255, S&P down 0.84% to 6917, amid tech rotation; VIX fell to 17.87. Bond yields held steady at 3.59% for 2-year and 4.29% for 10-year, while USD/JPY edged up to 156.80. EUR/USD dipped to 1.1809, GBP/USD at 1.371, as dollar firmed. Commodities mixed: WTI oil rose 1.55% to 62.14 on API draw and Iran drone incident; gold recovered 6% to 5023 after selloff. Bitcoin slid 3.16% to 75766, extending losses.
ADP employment change at 8:15am expected at 48000, offering labor insights post-shutdown delays. Services PMI at 10am projected at 53.5, followed by EIA crude/gas stocks at 10:30am. Fed Cook speech at 6:30pm and Bostic at 10:50am may signal rate cut pace amid hawkish Fed chair nominee. Weekly jobless claims at 8:30am forecast at 212000. (cont...)
US-India trade pact signals supply chain gains, easing tariff risks for manufacturers. Global AI investment imperative urges private funding to avoid deficits, per BlackRock's Fink. Italy's GDP growth modest at 0.5% for 2025, cautioning Eurozone outlook.
In rate-cutting cycle, Barkin's neutral stance favors gradual pace, but Warsh nomination tilts hawkish, pricing fewer cuts. Markets expect only two 2025 reductions, post-data confirmation. Underlying inflation progress supports easing, yet geopolitical risks warrant caution.