US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Labor Weakness Spurs Cuts
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,892.90 | -0.47% |
| Nasdaq | 22,904.58 | -1.51% |
| Spot VIX | 19.40 | +4.08% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.56 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.28 | -0 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1802 | -0.02% |
| USD/JPY | 157.06 | +0.09% |
| GBP/USD | 1.362 | -0.26% |
| WTI Oil | 63.21 | +1.72% |
| Gold | 4,889.16 | -1.53% |
| Bitcoin | 71,222.57 | -2.44% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.24 | - | 6.21 |
| ADP Employment Change | 37,000 | 48,000 | 22,000 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | - |
| Services Sector PMI | 53.80 | 53.50 | 53.80 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -2.3m | -2m | -3.5m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 223,000 | - | 685,000 |
| Fed Cook Speech | - | - | - |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 209,000 | 212,000 | 08:30 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.1m | 7.2m | 10:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | 10:50 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | - | - | 16:30 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel | 56.40 | 55 | 10:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Jefferson | - | - | 12:00 |
- ADP employment change came in at 22,000, well below consensus of 48,000, highlighting labor market fragility.
- EIA crude inventories drew 3.45 million barrels, exceeding expectations and lifting oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.
- Fed Cook's speech emphasized inflation vigilance, but weak data leans dovish for faster rate cuts.
Yesterday's Recap
ADP employment change printed at 22,000, missing consensus of 48,000 and marking the weakest reading in months, which raised concerns over labor demand amid economic strains.
Services Sector PMI edged up to 53.8, just above 53.5 expected, with steady expansion in new orders but softening employment components.
EIA crude inventories fell by 3.45 million barrels, surpassing 2 million expected, while gasoline stocks rose 685,000 barrels.
Fed Cook highlighted inflation risks, stressing data dependence without signaling immediate policy shifts.
Equities showed mixed calm, with S&P 500 at 6892.90, Nasdaq at 22904.58, and VIX at 19.40; bond yields held steady at 3.56% for 2-year and 4.28% for 10-year; EUR/USD dipped to 1.1802, USD/JPY at 157.06, GBP/USD at 1.362; WTI oil rose to 63.21, gold fell to 4889.16, and Bitcoin at 71222.57. (cont...)
