US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Cuts Gain Momentum
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,937.80 | +1.95% |
| Nasdaq | 23,031.21 | +2.18% |
| Spot VIX | 18.91 | -7.17% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.51 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.24 | +2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1863 | +0.35% |
| USD/JPY | 156.69 | -0.26% |
| GBP/USD | 1.361 | -0.07% |
| WTI Oil | 63.29 | -2.84% |
| Gold | 5,002.51 | +0.68% |
| Bitcoin | 68,513.38 | -2.52% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | 13:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Miran | - | - | 14:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | 15:15 |
| Speech by Fed's Miran | - | - | 17:00 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 7,750 | - | 08:15 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.40 | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost - Benefits Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.80 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost - Wages Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.80 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost Index Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.80 | 0.80 | 08:30 |
| Export Prices Month-over-Month | - | 0.10 | 08:30 |
- ADP employment change expected at 8:15am, with retail sales at 8:30am offering insights into consumer spending amid trade tensions.
- Fed speeches by Waller, Miran, and Bostic may signal faster rate cuts given recent labor softness.
- Global news highlights US tourism decline and geopolitical strains, pressuring equities and commodities.
Friday's Recap
Weekly jobless claims rose to 231k, exceeding consensus and underscoring labor market strain.
JOLTs job openings fell to 6.54M, missing expectations and revealing hiring challenges.
Fed Bostic emphasized data dependence, maintaining a neutral tone without policy shifts.
Equities dipped modestly with S&P 500 down 1.97% to 6805.20 and Nasdaq down 2.18% to 22540.59, as VIX rose to 20.18 signaling volatility.
Bond yields steadied with 2-year at 3.49% and 10-year at 4.20%, while EUR/USD fell to 1.1786 and USD/JPY rose to 156.61.
Commodities weakened, with WTI oil down 1.3% to 65.14, gold down 0.08% to 4885.37, and bitcoin down 5.7% to 65311.70 amid risk-off sentiment.
The Day Ahead
ADP employment change at 8:15am is forecast at 22,000, potentially confirming labor fragility.
Retail sales at 8:30am expected at 0.4% m/m, along with employment cost indices, will gauge inflation pressures.
Fed Waller speaks at 13:30, Miran at 14:30 and 17:00, Bostic at 15:15, likely reiterating data-driven policy in the cutting cycle. (cont...)
