| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,970.90 | +0.48% |
| Nasdaq | 23,238.67 | +0.90% |
| Spot VIX | 17.46 | +0.58% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.49 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.18 | -3 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1910 | -0.04% |
| USD/JPY | 155.57 | -0.20% |
| GBP/USD | 1.367 | -0.15% |
| WTI Oil | 63.55 | +0.41% |
| Gold | 5,047.27 | -0.24% |
| Bitcoin | 69,053.72 | -1.49% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Miran | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Miran | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 7,750 | - | 08:15 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.40 | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost - Benefits Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.80 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost - Wages Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.80 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost Index Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.80 | 0.80 | 08:30 |
| Export Prices Month-over-Month | - | 0.10 | 08:30 |
| Import Prices Month-over-Month | - | 0.10 | 08:30 |
| Retail Sales Control Group Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.40 | 08:30 |
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Ny Fed Bill Purchases 1 To 4 Months | - | - | 09:20 |
Fed Governor Waller emphasized data-dependent policy, noting inflation progress but labor resilience. Fed Governor Miran reiterated commitment to gradual easing, while Bostic stressed balanced growth risks. Markets remained calm with VIX at 17.46, as S&P 500 held steady at 6970.90 amid steady economic news flow. Bond yields edged higher, with 10-year at 4.18%, reflecting cautious Fed outlook. FX was stable, EUR/USD at 1.1910, while WTI oil fell to 63.55 on geopolitical easing.
Investors await ADP employment data expected at 7750, potentially signaling labor trends. Retail sales at 0.4% consensus could influence Fed cut expectations. Fed speeches from NY Fed officials may clarify pace of easing.
Japan's new PM Takaichi's win promises fiscal stimulus, boosting regional growth. US-Iran nuclear talks reduced oil volatility, aiding global supply stability. MSC's illegal settlements shipments highlight EU trade risks.
In the cutting cycle, recent speeches frame data as supportive for slower cuts to avoid overheating. Powell may signal fewer 2025 cuts if inflation surprises. Markets price dovish tilt, with 2-year yields at 3.49% anticipating easing.