US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Jobs Surge Sparks Fed Caution
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,950.50 | -0.01% |
| Nasdaq | 23,066.47 | -0.16% |
| Spot VIX | 17.34 | -1.76% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.52 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.18 | 0 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1881 | +0.09% |
| USD/JPY | 153.13 | -0.05% |
| GBP/USD | 1.364 | +0.17% |
| WTI Oil | 63.96 | -0.62% |
| Gold | 5,063.41 | -0.42% |
| Bitcoin | 68,149.58 | +1.66% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.21 | - | 6.21 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 48,000 | 70,000 | 130,000 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| Labor Force Participation | 62.40 | - | 62.50 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | - |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -3.5m | 800,000 | 8.5m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 685,000 | -400,000 | 1.2m |
| Monthly Budget Statement | -145m | -86.5m | -95m |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 231,000 | 222,000 | 08:30 |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.3m | 4.2m | 10:00 |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | 5.10 | - | 10:00 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6610m | - | 16:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Miran | - | - | 19:05 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.50 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.70 | 2.50 | 08:30 |
| Consumer Price Index | 324.05 | 325.41 | 08:30 |
- US payrolls surged 130k in January, beating expectations and pushing unemployment to a 2-year low.
- EIA reported a massive 8.5M barrel crude build, easing supply concerns amid global tensions.
- Markets steadied with VIX at 17.34, as equities and bonds held firm despite mixed data.
Yesterday's Recap
US payrolls added 130k jobs in January, surpassing consensus by 60k, while unemployment dropped to 4.3% from 4.4%.
Monthly wage growth accelerated to 0.4%, above the expected 0.3%, signaling persistent inflationary pressures.
EIA crude inventories surged 8.5 million barrels, far exceeding forecasts, amid ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks.
Fed Governor Bowman spoke on policy, but no new hawkish shifts emerged.
The Day Ahead
Jobless claims are expected at 222k, with consensus at 231k, potentially confirming labor market resilience.
Core inflation data will be scrutinized, with consensus at 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y, guiding Fed rate paths.
Fed speeches by Miran may reiterate data-dependent easing.
Other Economic Notes
Labor market strength suggests cooling inflation may allow slower Fed cuts.
Global tensions, like US-Iran talks, support oil prices despite inventory builds.
Housing starts are declining, signaling market balance ahead.
