US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Watch Amid Fed Caution
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,843.30 | -1.54% |
| Nasdaq | 22,597.15 | -2.03% |
| Spot VIX | 21.45 | +3.03% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.48 | +2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.12 | +2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1856 | -0.11% |
| USD/JPY | 153.42 | +0.48% |
| GBP/USD | 1.361 | -0.07% |
| WTI Oil | 64.63 | +1.05% |
| Gold | 4,935.39 | +0.27% |
| Bitcoin | 66,809.43 | +0.91% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | - |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 232,000 | 222,000 | 227,000 |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.3m | 4.2m | 3.9m |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | 4.40 | - | -8.40 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6610m | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Miran | - | - | - |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.50 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.70 | 2.50 | 08:30 |
| Consumer Price Index | 324.05 | 325.41 | 08:30 |
| CPI s.a | 326.03 | - | 08:30 |
- Jobless claims rose to 227k, slightly above expectations, signaling labor market resilience.
- Existing home sales plummeted 8.4% m/m to 3.91m, the weakest since March 2021.
- Markets remained calm with VIX at 21.45, as investors await inflation data for Fed cues.
Yesterday's Recap
Initial jobless claims came in at 227k, slightly higher than the expected 222k, indicating steady labor demand despite recent payroll strength.
Existing home sales fell sharply to 3.91m units, missing consensus by 270k and dropping 8.4% m/m, reflecting housing market pressures.
Fed Governor Miran highlighted policy risks to growth, noting supportive Trump-era measures but advocating for further easing.
Equities traded flat with S&P 500 at 6843.30 and Nasdaq at 22597.15, while bond yields edged higher to 3.48% on 2-year and 4.12% on 10-year.
FX showed minor shifts, with EUR/USD at 1.1856 and GBP/USD at 1.361, as the USD held steady.
The Day Ahead
CPI data at 8:30am is expected at 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y, compared to 0.2% and 2.7% previously, with core measures at similar forecasts.
Markets will scrutinize any upside surprises that could temper Fed rate cut expectations.
No major Fed speeches scheduled, keeping focus on inflation readings.
