| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,843.30 | -1.54% |
| Nasdaq | 22,597.15 | -2.03% |
| Spot VIX | 21.45 | +3.03% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.48 | +2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.12 | +2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1856 | -0.11% |
| USD/JPY | 153.42 | +0.48% |
| GBP/USD | 1.361 | -0.07% |
| WTI Oil | 64.63 | +1.05% |
| Gold | 4,935.39 | +0.27% |
| Bitcoin | 66,809.43 | +0.91% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | - |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 232,000 | 222,000 | 227,000 |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.3m | 4.2m | 3.9m |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | 4.40 | - | -8.40 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6610m | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Miran | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.50 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.70 | 2.50 | 08:30 |
| Consumer Price Index | 324.05 | 325.41 | 08:30 |
| CPI s.a | 326.03 | - | 08:30 |
Initial jobless claims came in at 227k, slightly higher than the expected 222k, indicating steady labor demand despite recent payroll strength. Existing home sales fell sharply to 3.91m units, missing consensus by 270k and dropping 8.4% m/m, reflecting housing market pressures. Fed Governor Miran highlighted policy risks to growth, noting supportive Trump-era measures but advocating for further easing. Equities traded flat with S&P 500 at 6843.30 and Nasdaq at 22597.15, while bond yields edged higher to 3.48% on 2-year and 4.12% on 10-year. FX showed minor shifts, with EUR/USD at 1.1856 and GBP/USD at 1.361, as the USD held steady.
CPI data at 8:30am is expected at 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y, compared to 0.2% and 2.7% previously, with core measures at similar forecasts. Markets will scrutinize any upside surprises that could temper Fed rate cut expectations. No major Fed speeches scheduled, keeping focus on inflation readings.
Valentine's Day spending reflects a K-shaped economy, with higher earners boosting luxury purchases while lower-income consumers scale back on essentials. EU leaders agreed on economic restructuring to compete globally, emphasizing deregulation and financial integration against US-China pressures. Taiwan's circular economy sector grows at 9% annually, positioning it as an Asia hub for resource efficiency.
In the rate cutting cycle, recent strong jobs data leans hawkish, favoring fewer and slower cuts to avoid overheating. Markets price a 92% chance of no March hike, but upside inflation surprises could delay June easing. Fed speeches underscore data dependence, with Miran noting policy risks if cuts lag economic support.