| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,847.60 | +0.06% |
| Nasdaq | 22,546.67 | -0.22% |
| Spot VIX | 20.54 | -0.29% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.42 | -4 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.05 | -5 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1864 | -0.08% |
| USD/JPY | 153.47 | +0.46% |
| GBP/USD | 1.365 | -0.07% |
| WTI Oil | 62.84 | -2.77% |
| Gold | 5,022.50 | -0.42% |
| Bitcoin | 68,601.74 | -0.27% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 08:25 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 6,500 | - | 08:15 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.70 | 6 | 08:30 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 38 | 10:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | 12:45 |
| Fed Daly Speech | - | - | 14:30 |
January CPI climbed 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, missing consensus forecasts of 0.3% and 2.5%, with core measures also tame at 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y. Jobless claims ticked up to 227k, slightly above the expected 222k, underscoring resilient labor demand despite recent payroll gains. Existing home sales plunged 8.4% to 3.91 million units, the weakest since March 2021, amid housing market pressures. Fed Governor Miran emphasized policy risks to growth, advocating cautious easing supported by Trump-era measures. Equities traded flat with S&P 500 at 6843.30 and Nasdaq at 22597.15, while 2-year Treasury yields rose 6bps to 3.48% and 10-year yields up 4bps to 4.12%. FX showed minor shifts, EUR/USD at 1.1856 and GBP/USD at 1.361, as USD held steady; WTI oil edged down to 62.84 amid supply concerns, gold rose to 5022.50, and Bitcoin slipped to 68601.74. (cont...)
ADP Employment Change at 08:15 is expected at 6500, potentially confirming labor market trends. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 08:30 consensus 6, offering insights into regional economic health. Fed speeches by Bowman at 08:25 and Barr at 12:45 may clarify easing pace, with Daly at 14:30 discussing policy risks. NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 expected at 38, gauging homebuilder sentiment.
Delinquency rates on US household debt rose to 4.8%, highest since 2017, driven by low-income borrowers. Japan's election win boosted stock prices and yields, signaling strong LDP support. Taiwan's economic growth upgraded, propelled by AI buildout and foreign investments.
In the rate cutting cycle, softer CPI data supports faster cuts, with markets pricing 92% odds of no March hike but June easing likely. Recent jobs strength tilts hawkish, favoring fewer cuts if labor surprises persist. Powell may stress data dependence, potentially accelerating pace if inflation cools further.