| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,847.60 | +0.06% |
| Nasdaq | 22,546.67 | -0.22% |
| Spot VIX | 22.10 | +7.28% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.41 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.03 | -2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1843 | -0.09% |
| USD/JPY | 152.98 | -0.34% |
| GBP/USD | 1.359 | -0.32% |
| WTI Oil | 63.80 | +0.03% |
| Gold | 4,928.52 | -1.25% |
| Bitcoin | 67,795.42 | -1.55% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 6,500 | - | 08:15 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.70 | 6 | 08:30 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 38 | 10:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | 12:45 |
| Fed Daly Speech | - | - | 14:30 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.21 | - | 07:00 |
| Building Permits Prel | 1.4m | - | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Prel | - | 1.4m | 08:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | 5.30 | -2 | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.2m | - | 08:30 |
January CPI climbed 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, missing consensus forecasts of 0.3% and 2.5%, with core measures cooling to 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Equities closed mixed, S&P 500 up 0.05% to 6836.17 and Nasdaq down 0.22% to 22546.67, while utilities and real estate led gains. Bond yields edged lower, 2-year Treasury down 6bps to 3.41% and 10-year down 7bps to 4.03%, reflecting dovish inflation signals. FX remained steady, EUR/USD at 1.1843 and GBP/USD at 1.359, with USD/JPY up slightly to 152.98. Commodities saw gold rise 1.29% to 4926.51 and oil climb 0.62% to 63.14, amid geopolitical tensions; Bitcoin fell 1.26% to 67795.42. Fed Governor Bowman spoke on labor markets, but no major policy shifts emerged. (cont...)
ADP Employment Change at 8:15am is expected at 6500, potentially confirming labor resilience after strong payrolls. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30am consensus at 6, alongside Building Permits at 8:30am expected at 1400000, will gauge economic activity. Fed speeches by Barr at 12:45pm and Daly at 2:30pm may clarify rate cut timing, with NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am anticipated at 38.
US student loan delinquencies hit a record 16.2% in Q4 2025, dampening consumer spending amid debt burdens. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 58.3, missing expectations and signaling fragile recovery. AI disruptions spurred value investing, with staples outperforming tech sectors.
In the rate cutting cycle, softer CPI data favors faster cuts, with markets pricing June easing likely after no March hike. Recent jobs strength tilts hawkish, supporting fewer cuts if employment surprises persist. Barr and Daly speeches could emphasize data dependence, tilting toward more cuts if inflation remains tame.