US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Housing Weakness Supports Cuts
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,858.40 | +0.16% |
| Nasdaq | 22,578.38 | +0.14% |
| Spot VIX | 19.63 | -3.25% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.46 | 0 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.07 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1832 | -0.16% |
| USD/JPY | 153.69 | +0.26% |
| GBP/USD | 1.357 | +0.06% |
| WTI Oil | 63.34 | +1.63% |
| Gold | 4,914.96 | +0.73% |
| Bitcoin | 67,437.00 | -0.05% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 7,750 | - | 10,250 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.70 | 7 | 7.10 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 38 | 36 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | - |
| Fed Daly Speech | - | - | - |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.21 | - | 07:00 |
| Building Permits Prel | 1.4m | - | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Prel | - | 1.4m | 08:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | 5.30 | -2 | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.2m | - | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | - | 1.3m | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -0.30 | - | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 08:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Month-over-Month | -4.60 | - | 08:30 |
- Economic data releases show mixed signals
- Markets react to latest developments
- Fed policy remains data-dependent
Yesterday's Recap
ADP employment change surged to 10250, well above the previous 7750 and signaling robust labor market conditions.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index edged to 7.10, slightly missing consensus but indicating steady regional activity.
NAHB Housing Market Index dropped to 36, below expectations of 38, underscoring persistent housing sector weakness.
Fed speeches by Barr and Daly focused on economic risks, with Barr noting policy constraints amid geopolitical tensions.
Equities closed mixed, S&P 500 at 6858.40 and Nasdaq at 22578.38, while VIX held at 19.63.
Bond yields ticked up, 2-year at 3.46% and 10-year at 4.07%, reflecting modest hawkish tilt.
FX showed EUR/USD at 1.1832, USD/JPY at 153.69, GBP/USD at 1.357; WTI oil at 63.34, gold at 4914.96, Bitcoin at 67437.00. (cont...)
