| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,858.40 | +0.16% |
| Nasdaq | 22,578.38 | +0.14% |
| Spot VIX | 19.63 | -3.25% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.46 | 0 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.07 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1832 | -0.16% |
| USD/JPY | 153.69 | +0.26% |
| GBP/USD | 1.357 | +0.06% |
| WTI Oil | 63.34 | +1.63% |
| Gold | 4,914.96 | +0.73% |
| Bitcoin | 67,437.00 | -0.05% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 7,750 | - | 10,250 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.70 | 7 | 7.10 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 38 | 36 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | - |
| Fed Daly Speech | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.21 | - | 07:00 |
| Building Permits Prel | 1.4m | - | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Prel | - | 1.4m | 08:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | 5.30 | -2 | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.2m | - | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | - | 1.3m | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -0.30 | - | 08:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 08:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Housing Starts Month-over-Month | -4.60 | - | 08:30 |
ADP employment change surged to 10250, well above the previous 7750 and signaling robust labor market conditions. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index edged to 7.10, slightly missing consensus but indicating steady regional activity. NAHB Housing Market Index dropped to 36, below expectations of 38, underscoring persistent housing sector weakness. Fed speeches by Barr and Daly focused on economic risks, with Barr noting policy constraints amid geopolitical tensions. Equities closed mixed, S&P 500 at 6858.40 and Nasdaq at 22578.38, while VIX held at 19.63. Bond yields ticked up, 2-year at 3.46% and 10-year at 4.07%, reflecting modest hawkish tilt. FX showed EUR/USD at 1.1832, USD/JPY at 153.69, GBP/USD at 1.357; WTI oil at 63.34, gold at 4914.96, Bitcoin at 67437.00. (cont...)
MBA Mortgage Rate at 7:00am may reveal housing sentiment shifts, with prior at 6.21. Building Permits at 8:30am expected at 1400000, alongside Durable Goods Orders consensus at -2% m/m, will gauge manufacturing momentum. Housing Starts at 8:30am anticipated at 1330000, providing key construction insights. No major Fed speeches scheduled, keeping focus on economic releases for cut timing cues.
Middle East tensions, including UAE-Saudi rift, risk disrupting oil flows despite US-Iran talks. US fuel blockade on Cuba exacerbates waste crises, highlighting humanitarian and economic strains. AI-driven RAM shortages fuel hardware delays, impacting tech and gaming sectors.
In the rate cutting cycle, mixed data supports cautious easing, with labor strength favoring fewer cuts to avoid overheating. Housing misses lean dovish, prompting faster pace if weakness persists. Markets price June cuts likely, contingent on upcoming inflation and jobs data.