| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,893.50 | +0.51% |
| Nasdaq | 22,753.63 | +0.78% |
| Spot VIX | Data Unavailable | Data Unavailable |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.48 | +2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.10 | +2 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1800 | +0.14% |
| USD/JPY | 155.08 | +0.17% |
| GBP/USD | 1.350 | +0.03% |
| WTI Oil | 66.04 | +1.30% |
| Gold | 4,985.85 | +0.19% |
| Bitcoin | 67,155.59 | +1.10% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.21 | - | 6.17 |
| Building Permits Prel | 1.4m | - | 1.4m |
| Building Permits Prel | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.4m |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | 5.40 | -2 | -1.40 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.3m | - | 1.3m |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.3m | 1.3m | 1.4m |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -0.30 | - | -1.60 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -1.60 | -0.20 | 4.30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Housing Starts Month-over-Month | -4.20 | - | 3.90 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | 08:20 |
| Trade Balance | -56.8m | -56m | 08:30 |
| Exports Level | 292.1m | - | 08:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 08:30 |
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -86m | -85.6m | 08:30 |
| Imports Level | 348.9m | - | 08:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 227,000 | 225,000 | 08:30 |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 12.60 | 9.30 | 08:30 |
| Retail Inventories Ex Autos Month-over-Month Adv | 0.20 | - | 08:30 |
| Wholesale Inventories Month-over-Month Adv | 0.20 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
Housing data outperformed, with starts jumping to 1.404 million units and building permits rising to 1.448 million, fueling optimism for sector recovery. Durable goods orders decreased 1.4% month-over-month, better than the expected 2% drop, indicating resilient manufacturing activity excluding transportation. Equities advanced modestly, S&P 500 at 6893.50 and Nasdaq at 22753.63, while VIX remained steady reflecting low volatility. Bond yields ticked up, 2-year at 3.48% and 10-year at 4.10%, amid mixed data signals. FX saw EUR/USD at 1.1800 and GBP/USD at 1.350, with USD/JPY stable at 155.08; WTI oil rose to 66.04, gold fell to 4985.85, and Bitcoin traded at 67155.59.
Fed speeches kick off with Bostic at 08:20am, potentially clarifying rate cut timing, followed by Bowman at 08:30am alongside trade balance data expected at -56 billion. Jobless claims at 08:30am, projected at 225k, and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index at 6.3 will gauge labor and regional activity. Retail and wholesale inventories at 08:30am may reveal consumption trends, influencing market sentiment ahead of Friday's PCE report. (cont...)
China's oil stockpiling raises geopolitical risks, with 1.1-1.2 billion barrels amassed for potential conflict preparation. US-Iran nuclear talks progressed on guiding principles, easing Middle East tensions but keeping oil volatility in check.
In the rate cutting cycle, housing strength and durable goods beats lean dovish, supporting faster cuts if data confirms cooling inflation. Markets price June easing likely, with labor claims and manufacturing data key to pace. Fed minutes today could emphasize data dependence, tilting toward more cuts if disinflation persists.