Friday's Recap
US Q4 GDP expanded 1.4%, well below the 2.8% consensus, dragged by government shutdown and export weakness, marking the slowest growth since Q2 2025.
Core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.0% YoY, its third straight monthly rise, fueling hawkish Fed expectations and higher bond yields.
Supreme Court struck down Trump's emergency tariffs as unconstitutional, triggering a mid-session rebound; S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 6876.80, Nasdaq up 0.9%, while VIX fell 5 points to 19.85.
Oil surged 6% to $66.43 on Iran tensions, but energy stocks dipped as gains faded.
USD/JPY weakened to 154.69 amid tariff relief, while gold edged up to 4975.90 on safe-haven demand.
The Day Ahead
Markets await February Philly Fed manufacturing index at 8:30am, expected at 15.0 vs 16.7 prior.
Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10am on economic outlook, potentially clarifying rate cut pace amid mixed data.
No major global data scheduled, but geopolitical tensions in Middle East could influence oil prices. (cont...)
