US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Stocks Dip on Weak Factory Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,837.75 | -1.04% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,708.94 | -1.21% |
| Dow Jones | 48,804.06 | -1.66% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,620.99 | -1.61% |
| USD/JPY | 155.78 | +0.93% |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | -0.49% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.28% |
| Gold | 5,160.50 | -0.85% |
| WTI Crude | 66.08 | -0.35% |
| Bitcoin | 64,098.80 | -0.80% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.43% | -1.44% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.03% | -1.23% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.21 | - | 0.18 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.15 | - | -0.21 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 2.70 | -0.50 | -0.70 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -1.20 | - | 0.20 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Golsbee Speech | - | - | 03:00 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11,500 | - | 03:15 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.40 | 1.40 | 04:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | 04:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Collins | - | - | 04:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | 04:15 |
| Fed Cook Speech | - | - | 04:30 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 89 | - | 05:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 10:15 |
| Speech by Fed's Collins | - | - | 10:15 |
- US stocks fell on softer factory orders and mixed signals, with S&P 500 down 1.04% to 6,837.75.
- Treasury yields declined amid caution, 10-year at 4.03% after -1.23% drop; USD/JPY rose 0.93% to 155.78.
- Economy grew 2.2% in 2025 but added few jobs, widening inequality in K-shaped recovery.
Yesterday's Recap
US data on February 23 showed mixed signals. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index had two readings: one improved to 0.18 from -0.21, signaling a slight uptick, while another dipped to -0.21 from -0.15, indicating volatility. Factory orders declined 0.7% month-over-month, below consensus of -0.5% and prior 2.7%, highlighting weakening manufacturing.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 0.2 from -1.2, providing a modest positive note. Fed's Waller spoke, emphasizing data-driven policy. Markets reacted with declines: S&P 500 fell 1.04% to 6,837.75, Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.21% to 24,708.94, Dow Jones slid 1.66% to 48,804.06, and Russell 2000 decreased 1.61% to 2,620.99.
Treasury yields fell, with 2-year down 1.44% to 3.43% and 10-year easing 1.23% to 4.03%. USD/JPY gained 0.93% to 155.78, but EUR/USD fell 0.49% to 1.18 and GBP/USD dipped 0.28% to 1.35. Gold dropped 0.85% to 5,160.50, WTI crude fell 0.35% to 66.08, and Bitcoin declined 0.80% to 64,098.80, reflecting risk aversion.
The Day Ahead
February 24 features multiple Fed speeches: Goolsbee at 3:00 ET (high impact), Bostic and Collins at 4:00 ET, Waller at 4:15 ET, Cook at 4:30 ET (high impact), and Barkin with another Collins at 10:15 ET. These could influence rate outlooks. Data includes ADP Employment Change at 3:15 ET, following prior 11,500.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price at 4:00 ET is expected at 1.4% year-over-year, matching previous. CB Consumer Confidence at 5:00 ET follows prior 89.0. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 11:30 ET comes after prior -609,000, with consensus 1,850,000.
Focus on policy signals and labor/housing data may drive market moves.
Other Economic Notes
Despite 2.2% GDP growth in 2025, the US added almost no net jobs, creating a K-shaped economy that widens inequality. Asset owners benefited from market gains, while wage earners faced stagnant hiring and rising costs. This divide risks curbing consumer spending and long-term growth, urging policy action to address structural gaps.
