| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,878.88 | -0.43% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,960.04 | -0.30% |
| Dow Jones | 48,977.92 | -1.05% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,632.36 | -1.68% |
| USD/JPY | 156.97 | +0.71% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | -0.56% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.59% |
| Gold | 5,397.20 | +3.19% |
| WTI Crude | 71.29 | +6.37% |
| Bitcoin | 66,302.22 | +0.86% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.42% | -0.87% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.02% | -0.74% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.60 | 52.30 | 05:00 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 48.10 | - | 05:00 |
| Tuesday (2026-03-03) | |||
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | 04:55 |
| Speech by Fed's Kashkari | - | - | 06:55 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 11.4m | - | 11:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-03-04) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.09 | - | 02:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | 22,000 | 45,000 | 03:15 |
| Services Sector PMI | 53.80 | 54 | 05:00 |
US markets closed lower on March 1, 2026, as concerns over AI-driven job losses and potential Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,878.88, driven by weakness in tech stocks amid reports of AI disrupting software sectors. The Dow Jones dropped 1.05% to 48,977.92, with industrial names hit by inflation worries, while the Nasdaq 100 edged down 0.30% to 24,960.04.Small caps underperformed, with the Russell 2000 declining 1.68% to 2,632.36, reflecting broader risk aversion. Oil prices rallied sharply, with WTI Crude up 6.37% to 71.29, fueled by Iran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf states following US actions. Gold advanced 3.19% to 5,397.20 as a safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin rose 0.86% to 66,302.22.Treasury yields dipped, with the 10-year at 4.02% (-0.74%) and 2-year at 3.42% (-0.87%), as investors sought safety amid no major data releases.
Today's ISM Manufacturing PMI at 5:00 ET, with consensus at 52.3 versus prior 52.6, could signal ongoing factory resilience and influence Fed rate cut odds. ISM Manufacturing Employment follows, offering insights into labor trends amid AI adoption concerns. Tomorrow features Fed speeches by Williams at 4:55 ET and Kashkari at 6:55 ET, potentially clarifying policy paths.API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 11:30 ET may highlight energy supply dynamics post-Iran tensions. Wednesday brings ADP Employment Change at 3:15 ET, consensus 45,000, as a payrolls preview, alongside Services PMI at 5:00 ET and EIA oil inventories. Thursday includes Import/Export Prices and Nonfarm Productivity at 3:30 ET, key for inflation and growth outlooks.
Broader US economic themes center on AI's potential to disrupt labor markets, with Fed Governor Cook warning that monetary policy may struggle to offset rising unemployment from tech adoption. Inflation remains sticky, with CPI YoY at 2.31%, supporting a cautious Fed stance despite unemployment at 4.30%. Holiday sales disappointed, signaling consumer caution amid high rates, while Boomer spending prevents a recession but raises sustainability questions.
Escalating US-Iran conflict rattled global markets, with Iran's missile strikes on Gulf states and US bases driving oil prices higher and boosting safe-haven flows into gold. Celebrations in the US and allied nations followed strikes on Iran, but attacks on civilian infrastructure in the Gulf heightened supply disruption fears, impacting USD strength. USD/JPY rose 0.71% to 156.97 on yield differentials and risk aversion, while EUR/USD fell 0.56% to 1.17 and GBP/USD dropped 0.59% to 1.34.Hezbollah's strikes on Israel added to regional volatility, potentially pressuring US energy imports and inflation. Global AI uncertainty compounded US market sell-offs, with investors wary of tech disruptions amid war risks. Allies in the Gulf face brunt of attacks, raising questions on broader involvement and its drag on US growth.Iranian Americans celebrated regime setbacks, but ongoing tensions could sustain elevated commodity prices affecting US consumers.
Recent Federal Reserve communications emphasize a data-dependent approach, with officials reiterating caution on rate cuts amid persistent inflation signals. The Fed held rates steady at 3.64%, focusing on forward guidance that balances growth risks with price stability, as projections suggest gradual easing if data softens. Quantitative tightening continues to unwind the balance sheet, supporting higher yields but providing room for policy flexibility.Markets interpret this as reducing odds for near-term cuts, especially with robust prior data like ISM expansion. Speeches from Williams and Kashkari this week may elaborate on FOMC views, potentially addressing AI's economic impacts without committing to timelines. Overall, these signal a higher-for-longer rate path, bolstering the USD and pressuring equities.