| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,816.63 | -0.94% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,720.08 | -1.09% |
| Dow Jones | 48,501.27 | -0.83% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,608.36 | -1.79% |
| USD/JPY | 157.20 | -0.04% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.50% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.25% |
| Gold | 5,203.80 | +1.89% |
| WTI Crude | 74.91 | +0.47% |
| Bitcoin | 71,140.41 | +4.17% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.47% | +2.66% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.05% | +2.02% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.60 | 51.80 | 52.40 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 48.10 | - | 48.80 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Kashkari | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 11.4m | 2.2m | 5.6m |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.09 | - | 02:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | 22,000 | 50,000 | 03:15 |
| Services Sector PMI | 53.80 | 53.50 | 05:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 16.0m | 2.2m | 05:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.0m | -1m | 05:30 |
US markets closed lower on March 3, 2026, as escalating tensions with Iran weighed on investor sentiment, driving the S&P 500 down 0.94% to 6,816.63 and the Nasdaq 100 off 1.09% to 24,720.08. The Dow Jones dropped 0.83% to 48,501.27, while small caps underperformed with the Russell 2000 declining 1.79% to 2,608.36, reflecting broad risk aversion amid reports of US airstrikes and rising oil prices. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February came in at 52.4, beating consensus of 51.8 but down from January's 52.6, indicating sustained expansion in factory activity though tempered by high borrowing costs.ISM Manufacturing Employment rose to 48.8 from 48.1, still below 50, highlighting ongoing labor market challenges in the sector. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks surged to 5,600,000 barrels, far exceeding the consensus of 2,190,000 and prior 11,400,000, contributing to a 0.47% rise in WTI Crude to $74.91. Treasury yields climbed, with the 2-year up 2.66% to 3.47% and 10-year up 2.02% to 4.05%, as markets digested Fed speeches from Williams and Kashkari amid persistent inflation concerns.Currency moves were mixed, with USD/JPY nearly flat at 157.20 down 0.04%, EUR/USD down 0.50% to 1.16, and GBP/USD off 0.25% to 1.34, while safe-havens like gold jumped 1.89% to $5,203.80 and Bitcoin rallied 4.17% to $71,140.41.
On March 4, 2026, key US releases include the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 2:00 ET, with the prior reading at 6.09%, offering insights into housing affordability amid elevated rates. ADP Employment Change follows at 3:15 ET, consensus at 50,000 versus previous 22,000, providing an early gauge of private payrolls ahead of official jobs data. Services Sector PMI at 5:00 ET is expected at 53.5 from 53.8, a high-impact indicator of non-manufacturing activity that could influence Fed rate expectations.EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory at 5:30 ET anticipates a 2,200,000 barrel build from 15,989,000, while EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory eyes -1,000,000 from -1,011,000, both medium-impact amid oil market volatility from Middle East tensions. Markets will watch for any spillover from global events, with no major Fed speeches scheduled.
Broader US economic themes center on cooling inflation, with the latest CPI YoY at 2.31% as of April 2025, approaching the Fed's 2% target but still warranting vigilance amid energy price risks. Unemployment stands at 4.30% as of January 2026, reflecting a resilient labor market that supports consumer spending yet raises concerns over wage pressures. Productivity and labor cost data due tomorrow could highlight efficiency trends, with nonfarm productivity expected at 1.9% QoQ preliminary from 4.9%, potentially easing inflation fears if costs moderate.
Escalating US-Iran conflict dominated global headlines, with US and Israeli airstrikes killing at least 787 in Iran, per reports, driving oil prices higher and adding uncertainty to US economic growth. Brent crude briefly topped $84, underscoring threats to US gasoline prices and inflation, as Iran's strategy to expand the war aims to outlast US involvement under President Trump. Saudi Arabia reported a drone attack on the US Embassy in Riyadh, causing a limited fire, heightening Middle East instability that could disrupt global energy supplies and impact US imports.Senate preparations for a vote on a resolution to curb Trump's Iran war authority reflect domestic political divisions, potentially affecting fiscal policy and market confidence. Iran's potential absence from the 2026 World Cup due to US hosting adds to diplomatic strains, while unrelated H-1B visa challenges for Indian professionals highlight US immigration policy frictions amid global talent competition. Oil market volatility contributed to a Dow plunge of over 1,200 points intraday before trimming to a 400-point loss, as climbing energy costs pressure US corporate earnings.European currencies weakened against the USD, with EUR/USD down 0.50%, amid ECB dovishness contrasting US rate paths. Positive notes include Bitcoin's surge on regulatory optimism, buffering some US portfolio risks from traditional asset declines.
Recent Federal Reserve communications, including speeches by Williams and Kashkari on March 3, emphasized data-dependent policy amid balanced risks, with no explicit shifts in forward guidance but underscoring vigilance on inflation persistence. The Fed funds rate holds at 3.64% as of March 2, reflecting the committee's decision to maintain steady amid resilient growth and cooling CPI. Incoming Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh faces challenges to deliver rate cuts promised by President Trump, as geopolitical tensions and oil shocks complicate the path to easing, per Bloomberg analysis.Quantitative tightening continues without announced changes, supporting higher Treasury yields as balance sheet runoff progresses. Dot plot projections from the last FOMC imply a gradual normalization, but markets now price fewer 2026 cuts due to robust data like the ISM beat. Overall, Fed statements reinforce a higher-for-longer stance, bolstering the USD and pressuring equities, with focus shifting to upcoming labor indicators for clues on timing.