| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,830.71 | -0.56% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 25,020.41 | -0.29% |
| Dow Jones | 47,954.74 | -1.61% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,585.57 | -1.91% |
| USD/JPY | 157.95 | +0.62% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.60% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.38% |
| Gold | 5,093.70 | +0.56% |
| WTI Crude | 85.43 | +5.46% |
| Bitcoin | 70,202.34 | -0.90% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.54% | +0.85% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.09% | +0.74% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.60 | 51.80 | 52.40 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 48.10 | - | 48.80 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Kashkari | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 11.4m | 2.2m | 5.6m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.09 | - | 6.09 |
| ADP Employment Change | 11,000 | 50,000 | 63,000 |
| Services Sector PMI | 53.80 | 53.50 | 56.10 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 16.0m | 2.3m | 3.5m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.0m | -800,000 | -1.7m |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.30 | 4.30 | 03:30 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 130,000 | 59,000 | 03:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0 | -0.30 | 03:30 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.70 | 3.70 | 03:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 62.50 | - | 03:30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.40 | 0.30 | 03:30 |
| Retail Sales Control Group Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.20 | 03:30 |
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0 | 0 | 03:30 |
| Business Inventories Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.10 | 05:00 |
| Fed Hammack Speech | - | - | 08:30 |
US data on March 5 revealed mixed economic signals, with nonfarm productivity at 2.8% quarter-over-quarter preliminary, topping consensus of 1.9% but paired with unit labor costs at 2.8% versus 2% expected. Weekly jobless claims stayed at 213,000, matching prior levels and slightly below 215,000 consensus, pointing to labor stability with unemployment at 4.30%. Export prices rose 0.6% month-over-month against 0.3% consensus, while import prices held at 0.2% as expected, suggesting mild inflation with CPI at 2.31% year-over-year.Prior releases showed services PMI at 56.1 versus 53.5 consensus, lifting Treasury yields with the 10-year up 0.74% to 4.09%. Equities declined, including S&P 500 down 0.56% to 6,830.71 and Nasdaq 100 off 0.29% to 25,020.41, due to higher yields. Oil inventories exceeded forecasts, with crude stocks up 3,475,000 barrels versus 2,300,000 consensus and gasoline down 1,704,000 versus -800,000 expected, driving WTI up 5.46% to 85.43.Currencies shifted with USD/JPY up 0.62% to 157.95 on yield gaps, and gold gained 0.56% to 5,093.70 as a haven.
March 6 brings February's headline unemployment rate, with consensus at 4.3% following 4.3% previous, providing labor insights amid 4.30% recent levels. Fed speakers may offer rate views after recent talks. Attention turns to energy markets post-inventory builds, plus geopolitical updates on oil.Broader focus includes Treasury dynamics and any auction impacts on yields. Investors watch for Middle East developments affecting USD pairs and commodities.
US growth remains solid despite Fed funds at 3.64%, with services PMI at 56.1 offsetting manufacturing PMI at 52.4. Inflation is subdued at 2.31% CPI year-over-year, though oil gains raise energy cost risks for businesses. Labor holds firm at 4.30% unemployment, bolstering spending but challenging Fed goals.ADP employment rose to 63,000 versus 50,000 consensus, hinting at payroll strength. Mortgage rates steady at 6.09% support housing, while API crude stocks up 5,600,000 versus 2,190,000 expected align with EIA builds.
Iran conflict escalates oil prices, with WTI surging amid US-Israeli actions, hurting India's growth and US small businesses via higher gas costs from tariffs and inflation. Analysts suggest doubling down on emerging markets despite war risks, while resource wars over rare earths and AI could disrupt supplies. Asian shares rose after US rebound, but Wall Street futures fell on tensions, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq in red.Dollar rally paused, lifting EUR/USD despite 0.60% drop to 1.16 and GBP/USD down 0.38% to 1.33. Ukraine aids US against Iranian drones, strengthening alliances. European stocks gained as oil stabilized, easing escalation fears.Crypto dipped modestly, with Bitcoin down 0.90% to 70,202.34. Pro-science rallies protest Trump policies, and immigration rules are seen worsening prosperity. Overall, markets show receding panic but cautious positioning.
Fed speeches by Williams and Kashkari stressed data-driven approaches, maintaining steady guidance with fed funds at 3.64%. Policy focuses on balance sheet runoff without changes, confident in inflation nearing 2% despite 2.31% CPI. Strong services PMI at 56.1 and labor at 4.30% unemployment may postpone easing, matching market bets for delayed cuts.Officials monitor oil-driven inflation risks from geopolitics without timeline commitments. This supports elevated yields like the 10-year at 4.09% and 2-year up 0.85% to 3.54%.