| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,740.02 | -1.33% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,643.02 | -1.51% |
| Dow Jones | 47,501.55 | -0.95% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,525.30 | -2.33% |
| USD/JPY | 158.42 | +0.56% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.37% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.08% |
| Gold | 5,097.10 | -0.95% |
| WTI Crude | 103.22 | +13.55% |
| Bitcoin | 67,602.86 | +2.48% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.57% | +0.85% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.13% | +0.98% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-03-10) | |||
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 12,750 | - | 04:15 |
| Existing Home Sales | 3.9m | 3.9m | 06:00 |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -8.40 | - | 06:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 5.6m | - | 12:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-03-11) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.09 | - | 03:00 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 2.50 | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
US markets closed sharply lower yesterday as a dismal February jobs report amplified concerns over economic stagnation amid the US-Iran war. The S&P 500 fell 1.33% to 6,740.02, marking its largest weekly decline in months, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.51% to 24,643.02, pressured by tech sector weakness. The Dow Jones slid 0.95% to 47,501.55, and the Russell 2000 plunged 2.33% to 2,525.30, highlighting broad-based selling in small caps.WTI crude oil surged 13.55% to $103.22, posting its biggest weekly gain on record due to disrupted Middle East supplies. Gold declined 0.95% to $5,097.10 as risk-off sentiment favored liquidity, while Bitcoin rose 2.48% to $67,602.86 on safe-haven digital asset flows. Treasury yields climbed, with the 2Y up 0.85% to 3.57% and 10Y up 0.98% to 4.13%, signaling bets on persistent inflation from energy prices.Currency moves included USD/JPY up 0.56% to 158.42, while EUR/USD fell 0.37% to 1.16, reflecting dollar strength on geopolitical risks.
Tomorrow brings the ADP Employment Change Weekly at 4:15 ET, expected to provide early labor market insights after last week's weak jobs data. Existing Home Sales at 6:00 ET, with consensus at 3.9 million units, will gauge housing sector resilience amid rising mortgage rates. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 12:30 ET could influence energy markets following recent supply disruptions.On Wednesday, key inflation data arrives with Core Inflation Rate MoM at 4:30 ET, consensus 0.2%, alongside YoY at 2.5%. Headline Inflation Rate YoY is forecasted at 2.5%, potentially shaping Fed rate expectations. Fed's Bowman speaks at 4:30 ET, offering clues on policy amid war-induced volatility, followed by EIA energy inventories at 6:30 ET.
Broader US economic themes center on stagflation risks, with unemployment at 4.40% signaling labor market softening while energy-driven inflation pressures mount. Commercial real estate faces strain as $875 billion in property debt matures soon, potentially exposing regional banks to losses amid higher rates. Medical tourism disruptions from Middle East conflicts are prompting Indian hospitals to pivot to alternative markets, underscoring supply chain vulnerabilities in healthcare.
The US-Iran war has upended global energy markets, pushing oil prices above $90 and disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipping, which directly impacts US import costs and inflation. European stocks and US futures slid on Friday, with Irish shares bucking the trend amid broader selloffs driven by energy shocks. Saudi Arabia and Iran's diplomatic restoration in 2023 now faces strains, complicating Middle East stability and US foreign policy.Israeli settler violence in the West Bank adds to regional tensions, potentially escalating conflicts that affect global trade routes. Bank of England policymakers are wary of overlooking energy shocks in their March 19 rate decision, mirroring US concerns over divergent inflation paths. Rising odds of financial crises highlight uncertainties in US-led recovery efforts, as historical patterns show varied market reactions during wars.India's diversification from Middle East medical tourism reflects broader shifts in global patient flows amid conflicts. Türkiye and the EU are focusing on Caucasus connectivity projects to bypass disrupted routes, indirectly supporting US efforts to secure alternative supply chains.
Recent Federal Reserve communications emphasize a data-dependent stance, with the fed funds rate steady at 3.64% amid progress toward the 2% inflation target, as evidenced by CPI YoY at 2.31%. The FOMC's latest decision held rates unchanged, focusing on forward guidance that highlights balanced risks between employment and inflation, without specifying easing timelines. Dot plot projections from the prior meeting suggest gradual rate cuts through 2026, totaling around 100 basis points, but war-induced energy spikes could delay this path.Quantitative tightening continues apace, with balance sheet runoff supporting higher yields, as seen in the 10Y Treasury's recent rise. Fed Chair Powell's virtual conference remarks reiterated inflation progress without committing to cuts, boosting market bets on a 25 bps reduction at the March meeting. Upcoming speech by Fed's Bowman may address how geopolitical risks factor into policy, potentially reinforcing caution on easing.Overall, these elements point to markets pricing in prolonged higher rates to combat sticky inflation from global disruptions.