| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,795.99 | +0.83% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,967.25 | +1.32% |
| Dow Jones | 47,740.80 | +0.50% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,553.67 | +1.12% |
| USD/JPY | 157.76 | -0.42% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +1.04% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +1.13% |
| Gold | 5,180.70 | +1.75% |
| WTI Crude | 88.89 | -6.20% |
| Bitcoin | 70,850.45 | +3.58% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.56% | -0.28% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.15% | +0.48% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 12,750 | - | 04:15 |
| Existing Home Sales | 3.9m | 3.9m | 06:00 |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -8.40 | - | 06:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 5.6m | - | 12:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-03-11) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.09 | - | 03:00 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 2.50 | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.40 | 2.40 | 04:30 |
US markets ended higher on March 9, with the S&P 500 up 0.83% at 6,795.99, fueled by tech gains and sector rotation. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.32% to 24,967.25 on semiconductor strength, the Dow Jones gained 0.50% to 47,740.80, and Russell 2000 advanced 1.12% to 2,553.67. Treasury yields diverged, with the 2Y falling 0.28% to 3.56% on safe-haven demand, while the 10Y climbed 0.48% to 4.15% due to inflation worries.Currencies shifted as EUR/USD increased 1.04% to 1.16 and GBP/USD rose 1.13% to 1.35, with USD/JPY down 0.42% at 157.76. Commodities varied: gold surged 1.75% to 5,180.70 on geopolitical risks, Bitcoin rose 3.58% to 70,850.45, but WTI crude fell sharply by 6.20% to 88.89, likely from builds in inventories or softer demand signals. No significant US economic data was released, allowing markets to focus on international developments, where Iran tensions initially weighed on sentiment but did not halt equity advances.
Today's highlights include ADP Employment Change Weekly at 4:15 ET, providing labor insights before payrolls. Existing Home Sales at 6:00 ET, consensus 3.9 million, will assess housing amid elevated rates, alongside MoM changes. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 12:30 ET may sway energy prices after oil's decline.Tomorrow features key inflation data: Core Inflation Rate MoM consensus 0.2%, YoY 2.5%; headline Inflation Rate MoM 0.3%, YoY 2.4%; CPI at 4:30 ET. Fed's Bowman speaks at 4:30 ET, offering policy hints. EIA inventories at 6:30 ET will detail crude and gasoline stocks, influencing commodities.MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 3:00 ET and Monthly Budget Statement at 10:00 ET round out the day.
US economy shows resilience with unemployment at 4.40%, supporting spending but risking wage inflation. Verified CPI YoY at 2.31% indicates cooling pressures, though above the Fed's target, complicating easing paths. Housing faces headwinds from high rates, as seen in upcoming sales data, while energy volatility persists from global events.Labor stability aids growth, but geopolitical risks could amplify commodity swings and inflation.
Iran conflict reports dominated headlines, with some noting Brent crude topping $100 and potential supply risks, though US WTI fell amid local factors. Analysts warn of market meltdown risks, with Ed Yardeni citing 35% probability from oil shocks and tensions. Global shares and futures dipped in Asia and Europe on war fears, prompting Asian central banks to rethink rate cuts due to fuel costs and outflows.Trump's 2026 economy faces early challenges from underperforming jobs and stocks amid these pressures. Other notes include CDC polio warnings in 32 countries, potentially affecting travel; corporate updates like Boundless Bio's trial enrollment and Editas Medicine's LDL-C progress; AOI's transceiver order; and cultural items like Bad Bunny's Super Bowl statement. Greek polls and drone tests add to international mix, but focus remains on oil-driven volatility ahead of US inflation.
Fed funds rate holds at 3.64% as of March 6, reflecting data-driven caution amid cooling inflation. Verified CPI YoY at 2.31% remains above target, guiding a measured easing stance. Unemployment at 4.40% signals labor strength, balancing risks without prompting aggressive cuts.Recent guidance emphasizes monitoring global events like oil fluctuations to avoid inflation reacceleration. Balance sheet runoff continues, contributing to elevated long-end yields like the 10Y at 4.15%. Speakers highlight balanced risks, with markets pricing gradual 2026 reductions unless CPI surprises.Policy remains steady, tempering equity optimism with yield dynamics.