| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,775.80 | -0.08% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,965.01 | +0.03% |
| Dow Jones | 47,417.27 | -0.61% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,542.90 | -0.20% |
| USD/JPY | 158.11 | +0.17% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.42% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.19% |
| Gold | 5,188.60 | +0.41% |
| WTI Crude | 90.87 | +4.15% |
| Bitcoin | 70,430.22 | +0.32% |
| US 2Y Treasury | - | - |
| US 10Y Treasury | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 12,750 | - | 15,500 |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.0m | 3.9m | 4.1m |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -8.40 | - | 1.70 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 5.6m | 1.4m | -1.7m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.09 | - | 6.19 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Consumer Price Index | 325.25 | 326.79 | 326.79 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits Prel | 1.5m | 1.4m | 04:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.4m | 1.4m | 04:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | 4.80 | - | 04:30 |
| Exports Level | 287,300m | - | 04:30 |
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -98,500m | - | 04:30 |
| Housing Starts Month-over-Month | 6.20 | - | 04:30 |
| Imports Level | 357,600m | - | 04:30 |
| Trade Balance | -70,300m | -66,600m | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 213,000 | 215,000 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 07:00 |
US inflation data for February aligned with forecasts, as headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY, matching consensus, while core CPI held at 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Existing home sales beat expectations at 4.09 million annually, up 1.7% MoM from a prior -8.4%, defying headwinds from MBA 30-year mortgage rates climbing to 6.19%. ADP weekly employment change jumped to 15,500, exceeding the previous 12,750, pointing to robust labor gains.Energy markets reacted to API crude stocks falling -1.7 million barrels versus +1.4 million expected, followed by EIA reporting +3.824 million barrels build against +1.1 million consensus, boosting WTI crude 4.15% to $90.87. The monthly budget statement showed a larger-than-expected deficit of -308 billion, worse than the -75.85 billion forecast. Equities ended mixed, with S&P 500 down 0.08% at 6,775.80, Nasdaq up 0.03% at 24,965.01, Dow falling 0.61% at 47,417.27, and Russell 2000 off 0.20% at 2,542.90, amid USD strength with USD/JPY up 0.17% to 158.11.Gold rose 0.41% to $5,188.60, while Bitcoin gained 0.32% to $70,430.22.
Building permits preliminary data, a high-impact release, is due at 4:30 ET, with previous at 1.455 million. Investors eye potential Fed speaker comments following Bowman's recent speech, with attention on weekly jobless claims tomorrow amid labor resilience from ADP figures. Markets may react to fiscal policy updates after the wider budget deficit.Geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran conflict, could sway energy and currency moves. Focus also on Treasury auctions and quantitative tightening signals.
Broader US themes show inflation stability at 2.4% YoY, supporting a soft landing despite unemployment at 4.40% as of February. Housing resilience, with sales beating estimates, contrasts rising mortgage rates, potentially curbing spending. Energy volatility highlights supply risks, impacting growth amid steady Fed funds at 3.64%.
India joined 30 UN states expressing alarm at Lebanon hostilities, adding to Middle East instability affecting US energy and oil prices. A cargo ship ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz after a projectile hit raises shipping route risks, driving WTI's 4.15% surge. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei injured in US-Israel strikes, with Trump urging to 'finish the job' in Iran, suggests prolonged conflict risking higher US inflation from energy costs.European energy prices climb due to the war, but analysts see avoidance of a Ukraine-style shock via diversification. Trump's claim of winning the Iran war weighs on stock futures despite mixed closes. UN panel cites US leaders' racist hate speech causing rights violations, straining diplomacy and trade.
Fed Governor Bowman's speech emphasized inflation caution, aligning with core CPI steady at 2.5% YoY, reinforcing a data-dependent stance. The FOMC maintains patience on cuts, with fed funds at 3.64%, as quantitative tightening reduces the balance sheet. Prior dot plots suggest 2026 rates around 3.0-3.25%, but stable 2.4% YoY inflation may delay easing.This supports higher-for-longer policy, seen in mixed equities and USD gains. The committee focuses on dual mandate amid strong employment, pointing to limited near-term cuts and pressuring risk assets.