| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,699.38 | +1.01% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,655.34 | +1.13% |
| Dow Jones | 46,946.41 | +0.83% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,503.29 | +0.94% |
| USD/JPY | 159.12 | -0.28% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | +0.66% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | +0.58% |
| Gold | 5,002.50 | +0.17% |
| WTI Crude | 95.68 | +2.33% |
| Bitcoin | 73,734.27 | -1.51% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.73% | -0.80% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.28% | +0.23% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.10 | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 37 | 38 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 15,500 | - | 04:15 |
| Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month | -0.80 | -0.50 | 06:00 |
| Pending Home Sales Year-over-Year | -0.40 | - | 06:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -1.7m | - | 12:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-03-18) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.19 | - | 03:00 |
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Core PPI Month-over-Month | 0.80 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.20 | 06:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 3.8m | - | 06:30 |
US economic data on March 16 showed mixed signals, with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index falling to -0.20, missing the consensus of 3.2 and down from 7.10 prior, signaling contraction in regional factory activity. Industrial Production rose 0.2% month-over-month, slightly beating expectations of 0.1% but slowing from the previous 0.7%. The NAHB Housing Market Index ticked up to 38, edging past the forecast of 37 and the prior reading.Equity markets advanced, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.01% to 6,699.38, Nasdaq 100 up 1.13% to 24,655.34, Dow Jones gaining 0.83% to 46,946.41, and Russell 2000 rising 0.94% to 2,503.29. The US dollar softened, with USD/JPY down 0.28% to 159.12, while EUR/USD rose 0.66% to 1.15 and GBP/USD increased 0.58% to 1.33. Commodities saw gold up 0.17% to 5,002.50 and WTI crude surging 2.33% to 95.68, though Bitcoin dipped 1.51% to 73,734.27.Treasury yields diverged, with the 2-year falling 0.80% to 3.73% and the 10-year edging up 0.23% to 4.28%, reflecting bets on steady policy amid data.
Markets eye the ADP Employment Change Weekly release at 4:15 ET on March 17, which follows a previous 15,500 gain, offering early insights into labor trends ahead of official payrolls. Pending Home Sales data at 6:00 ET will provide updates on housing momentum, with month-over-month consensus at -0.5% after -0.8% prior, alongside year-over-year figures. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report at 12:30 ET follows a prior drawdown of -1.7 million barrels, influencing energy prices amid global tensions.Looking to March 18, high-impact Producer Price Index data at 4:30 ET is forecasted at 0.3% month-over-month, with core at 0.3%, potentially shaping inflation views. Factory Orders at 6:00 ET are expected to rebound to 0.2% month-over-month from -0.7%, while EIA energy inventories at 6:30 ET will detail crude and gasoline stocks. The FOMC Economic Projections and Fed Interest Rate Decision at 10:00 ET cap the day, guiding rate expectations.
Broader US economic themes highlight persistent inflation pressures, with verified CPI year-over-year at 2.31% as of April 2025, underscoring the Fed's challenge in balancing growth and prices. (cont...)
Unemployment stands at 4.40% as of February 2026, reflecting a stable but not overheating labor market that supports consumer spending. Recent data points to a bifurcated economy, where industrial sectors face headwinds from global trade shifts, while housing shows modest resilience amid high mortgage rates.
Geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran war continue to disrupt oil flows, pushing WTI crude higher and prompting Japan to release reserves for energy security. US steel imports to Canada have dropped over 20% due to tariff wars, reshaping North American trade dynamics and potentially boosting domestic producers. The UK is reportedly planning to raise steel tariffs to 50%, which could escalate global protectionism and affect US exporters.Ecuador and the US signed a trade deal eliminating tariffs on over 1,000 products, enhancing bilateral flows and countering some trade frictions. Nigeria's naira shows stability against the dollar, with exchange rates fluctuating slightly, amid broader emerging market currency trends influencing USD strength. Ghana's reserves hit $14.5 billion with inflation at 3.3%, signaling stabilization that could ease global commodity pressures.Trump's vow to 'take' Cuba amid its power blackout adds to hemispheric instability, potentially impacting US energy and migration policies. Overall, these developments heighten risks to US growth through elevated commodity prices and supply chain disruptions.
The Federal Reserve's effective funds rate holds at 3.64% as of March 13, reflecting steady policy amid ongoing inflation monitoring. Recent communications emphasize data-dependence, with previews suggesting the March 18 FOMC meeting may address rising inflation risks from the US-Iran conflict. Forward guidance points to caution on rate cuts, as markets fear a potential hike despite earlier dovish signals, driven by persistent wholesale pressures.The dot plot is anticipated to show a higher-for-longer path, aligning with quantitative tightening that continues to drain liquidity. These elements imply sustained pressure on Treasury yields and equities, as the Fed balances economic growth against geopolitical uncertainties. Actual statements from officials highlight progress on disinflation but note upside risks, shaping market bets for measured adjustments.