| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,716.09 | +0.25% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,780.42 | +0.51% |
| Dow Jones | 46,993.26 | +0.10% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,519.99 | +0.67% |
| USD/JPY | 159.01 | -0.06% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | +0.38% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.31% |
| Gold | 4,979.50 | -0.43% |
| WTI Crude | 94.08 | -2.21% |
| Bitcoin | 73,915.62 | -0.01% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.68% | -1.34% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.23% | -1.17% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.10 | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 37 | 38 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 14,750 | - | 9,000 |
| Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month | -1 | -0.50 | 1.80 |
| Pending Home Sales Year-over-Year | -0.40 | - | -0.80 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -1.7m | -600,000 | 6.6m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.19 | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Core PPI Month-over-Month | 0.80 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.10 | 06:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 3.8m | 400,000 | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -3.7m | - | 06:30 |
| FOMC Economic Projections | - | - | 10:00 |
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 10:00 |
| Fed Press Conference | - | - | 10:30 |
| Net Long-term TIC Flows | 28,000m | 71,600m | 12:00 |
US economic data released on March 17 painted a mixed picture, with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index dropping to -0.20, below the consensus of 3.2 and prior 7.10, signaling contraction in regional activity. Industrial Production edged up 0.2% month-over-month, slightly beating the 0.1% forecast but down from 0.7% previously, reflecting modest manufacturing resilience. The NAHB Housing Market Index ticked up to 38 from 37, exceeding expectations and indicating marginal builder confidence improvement.ADP Employment Change Weekly fell sharply to 9000 from 14750, highlighting labor market softening, while Pending Home Sales rose 1.8% month-over-month against a -0.5% consensus, though year-over-year slipped to -0.8%. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks surged to 6.6 million barrels, far above the -0.6 million expected, contributing to a 2.21% drop in WTI Crude to $94.08. Equity markets responded with tempered optimism: S&P 500 gained 0.25% to 6,716.09, Nasdaq 100 rose 0.51% to 24,780.42, Dow Jones added 0.10% to 46,993.26, and Russell 2000 climbed 0.67% to 2,519.99.Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year at 3.68% (-1.34%) and 10-year at 4.23% (-1.17%), as investors sought safety amid geopolitical tensions.
Attention turns to the March 18 Producer Price Index at 4:30 ET, with consensus expecting a 0.3% month-over-month rise from 0.5% prior, alongside Core PPI at 0.3% from 0.8%, potentially influencing inflation outlooks. Factory Orders at 6:00 ET are forecasted at 0.1% month-over-month improvement from -0.7%, offering insights into manufacturing demand. EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory at 6:30 ET anticipates a 0.4 million barrel build after 3.824 million previously, with Gasoline Inventory details to gauge energy sector trends.The FOMC Economic Projections at 10:00 ET will update growth, inflation, and rate forecasts, critical amid war uncertainties. Fed Interest Rate Decision follows, expected to hold steady given recent communications on data dependence.
The US economy faces headwinds from geopolitical risks, with recent GDP growth at just 0.7% last quarter underscoring vulnerability to external shocks like the Iran conflict. (cont...)
Unemployment stands at 4.40% as of February, while CPI year-over-year is 2.31% through April 2025, indicating controlled but persistent inflation pressures that could delay policy easing. Broader themes include resilient consumer spending among higher-income groups, though overall growth hinges on mitigating war-driven disruptions to supply chains and energy prices.
Global oil markets reacted to heightened Middle East tensions, with WTI crude falling over 4% to around $92 amid US inventory builds and potential supply chain shocks from the Iran war. United States collaboration with Brazil, Canada, and Mexico on railway expansions aims to boost North American trade and tourism, potentially offsetting economic drags from geopolitical instability. Mexico's vacation rental boom, alongside US and regional partners, signals strength in travel sectors that could support US consumer spending.Venezuela's World Baseball Classic win against the US highlights cultural ties but has minimal direct macro impact. In Europe, the UK considers raising steel tariffs to 50%, which could affect US exporters and global commodity flows. Canadian financial announcements, including clean energy placements and ETF distributions, reflect cross-border investment trends influencing USD/CAD dynamics.Australia's fuel crisis coordination with states underscores global energy vulnerabilities, amplifying US concerns over oil price volatility. Overall, these developments heighten uncertainty for US markets, with war-driven inflation risks clouding the outlook.
Federal Reserve communications emphasize a data-dependent approach amid deep economic uncertainty from the war with Iran, with officials expected to hold the fed funds rate steady at 3.64% in the upcoming decision. Recent statements highlight uneven inflation progress toward the 2% target, as noted in analyses from NPR and The New York Times, shifting focus to rising risks without committing to specific cuts. The FOMC's forward guidance stresses assessing fallout from geopolitical events, with no immediate easing signaled despite market pricing adjustments.Dot plot updates in today's projections may reflect a more cautious path, potentially showing fewer rate reductions than previously anticipated due to war-related instability. Quantitative tightening continues apace, supporting balance sheet normalization, but communications avoid hawkish pivots to prevent market overreactions. BNY analysis points to a daunting rate path clouded by these factors, aligning with Fed rhetoric on monitoring global disruptions.Markets interpret this as prioritizing stability over aggressive moves, with implications for Treasury yields and equity volatility.