| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,624.70 | -1.36% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,425.09 | -1.43% |
| Dow Jones | 46,225.15 | -1.63% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,478.64 | -1.64% |
| USD/JPY | 159.13 | +0.15% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.54% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.59% |
| Gold | 4,685.90 | -4.17% |
| WTI Crude | 95.99 | -0.34% |
| Bitcoin | 70,122.31 | -1.58% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.68% | +0.00% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.20% | -0.71% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.10 | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 37 | 38 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 14,750 | - | 9,000 |
| Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month | -1 | -0.50 | 1.80 |
| Pending Home Sales Year-over-Year | -0.40 | - | -0.80 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -1.7m | -600,000 | 6.6m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.19 | - | 6.30 |
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| Core Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.80 | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 16.30 | 10 | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 213,000 | 215,000 | 04:30 |
| New Home Sales | 745,000 | 720,000 | 06:00 |
| New Home Sales Month-over-Month | -1.70 | - | 06:00 |
| Saturday (2026-03-21) | |||
| Speech by Fed's Chair Powell | - | - | 09:30 |
US data presented mixed signals, with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at -0.20, below consensus of 3.2, indicating regional contraction. Industrial production rose 0.2% MoM, slightly above 0.1% expected. NAHB Housing Market Index improved to 38 from 37.ADP employment change slowed to 9,000 from 14,750 prior. Pending home sales increased 1.8% MoM, beating -0.5% consensus, but fell 0.8% YoY. PPI surprised higher at 0.7% MoM versus 0.3% forecast, with core at 0.5% against 0.3%.Factory orders met expectations at 0.1% MoM. Oil inventories rose sharply, API crude stocks up 6.6 million barrels versus -0.6 million expected, EIA crude at +6.156 million against 0.4 million consensus, and gasoline at -5.436 million below -1.6 million forecast, pressuring WTI down 0.34% to 95.99. MBA 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.3% from 6.19%.Equities declined, S&P 500 -1.36% to 6,624.70, Nasdaq 100 -1.43% to 24,425.09, Dow Jones -1.63% to 46,225.15, Russell 2000 -1.64% to 2,478.64. USD/JPY rose 0.15% to 159.13, EUR/USD fell 0.54% to 1.15, GBP/USD down 0.59% to 1.33. Gold dropped 4.17% to 4,685.90, Bitcoin -1.58% to 70,122.31.US 10Y yield fell 0.71% to 4.20%, 2Y unchanged at 3.68%.
Attention turns to Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 4:30 ET, with prior data signaling potential weakness in regional activity. No other major US releases today, shifting focus to Fed Chair Powell's remarks for insights on rate trajectory amid geopolitical risks. Markets may react to any Iran conflict updates, influencing energy prices and yields.Treasury dynamics could evolve with safe-haven demand, while currency pairs like EUR/USD at 1.15 face volatility from global crosswinds. Broader sentiment depends on Middle East developments, potentially affecting inflation outlooks and equity rebounds.
Housing shows adaptability despite 30-year mortgage rates at 6.3%, as pending sales beat MoM forecasts, though YoY declines persist. Labor softness evident in ADP's 9,000 additions, consistent with unemployment at 4.40%, possibly easing wage inflation. (cont...)
Energy markets face supply builds from rising inventories, countering geopolitical tensions and helping contain CPI at 2.31% YoY. Manufacturing indicators like Empire State and factory orders suggest uneven recovery, with PPI strength highlighting input cost risks. Overall, data points to resilient yet cautious growth, with effective fed funds rate at 3.64% supporting steady policy.
Middle East tensions dominate, with Fed noting Iran oil crisis as inflation driver; WTI fell over 4% to around 92 in early trading per reports, amid inventory surges and production speculation. SNB held rates at zero, emphasizing franc intervention readiness, pressuring EUR/USD to 1.15. Hungary and nine EU states vetoed Ukraine aid, raising transatlantic concerns.Brazil proposed zeroing ICMS on imported diesel to curb fuel prices, adding to global energy policy shifts. Venezuela's World Baseball Classic win over US garners attention but minimal market impact. These factors contribute to risk-off moves, with gold down 4.17% and Bitcoin off 1.58%, as investors weigh uncertainty's effects on US yields and equities.
The FOMC held the target rate at 3.75%, matching consensus, with the committee voting to maintain amid Middle East uncertainty impacting economic projections. Powell highlighted Iran tensions as worsening inflation risks, aligning with data-dependent guidance. Projections released without detailed shifts, though some reports suggest one cut projected this year.QT proceeds unchanged, bolstering yields, with effective fed funds at 3.64%. This decision reflects caution on CPI at 2.31% YoY and unemployment at 4.40%, reducing easing expectations and driving 10Y yield to 4.20%. Communications emphasize monitoring geopolitical events for US outlook stability.