US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Stocks Plunge on Iran War Fears
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,506.48 | -1.51% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 23,898.15 | -1.88% |
| Dow Jones | 45,577.47 | -0.96% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,438.45 | -2.26% |
| USD/JPY | 159.61 | +1.07% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.77% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -1.21% |
| Gold | 4,276.80 | -6.42% |
| WTI Crude | 97.83 | -0.50% |
| Bitcoin | 68,528.60 | +1.01% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.79% | +0.80% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.25% | -0.23% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Fed Funds Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 3.64 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.06–5.33 | Trend(6pt): 0.07,1.21,5.33,4.83,3.72,3.64
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.18 | - | 04:30 |
| Tuesday (2026-03-24) | |||
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 9,000 | - | 04:15 |
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | 51.90 | - | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.60 | - | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 51.70 | - | 05:45 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 6.6m | - | 12:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | 14:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-03-25) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.30 | - | 03:00 |
- US equities tumbled amid escalating Iran conflict, with S&P 500 down 1.51% and Nasdaq 100 off 1.88%.
- Fed holds rates steady, citing uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, while signaling one potential cut this year.
- Safe-haven assets mixed: gold plunged 6.42%, but USD strengthened against majors.
Yesterday's Recap
US markets sold off sharply as geopolitical risks from the Iran war dominated sentiment, driving risk-off moves across equities. The S&P 500 closed at 6,506.48 after a 1.51% decline, led by tech and small-cap weakness, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.88% to 23,898.15 and the Russell 2000 dropped 2.26% to 2,438.45. Treasury yields showed divergence, with the 2-year rising 0.80% to 3.79% on inflation fears, but the 10-year eased 0.23% to 4.25% amid flight to quality.
The USD rallied, gaining 1.07% against JPY to 159.61 and weakening EUR/USD by 0.77% to 1.15. Gold prices cratered 6.42% to 4,276.80, bucking safe-haven trends possibly due to liquidation, while WTI crude dipped 0.50% to 97.83 despite Middle East tensions. Bitcoin bucked the trend, rising 1.01% to 68,528.60.
No major US data releases occurred, leaving markets to react purely to news flow on Iran's attacks and Fed's steady stance.
The Day Ahead
Today's Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 04:30 ET, with prior at 0.18, could signal broader economic momentum amid war uncertainties. Tuesday brings ADP Employment Change Weekly at 04:15 ET (prior 9,000) and S&P Global Flash PMIs at 05:45 ET, including Composite (prior 51.9), Manufacturing (prior 51.6), and Services (prior 51.7), offering early reads on Q1 growth. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 12:30 ET (prior 6.6M) and a speech by Fed's Barr at 14:30 ET may influence energy markets and rate expectations.
Wednesday features MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 03:00 ET (prior 6.3%), Current Account Balance at 04:30 ET (prior -226.4B), and trade price data, alongside EIA oil inventories at 06:30 ET. These releases could sway Treasury yields and USD if they highlight inflation or demand shifts from global tensions. Fed's Miran speech at 12:10 ET on Wednesday adds to policy watch.
Other Economic Notes
US CPI YoY stands at 2.31%, reflecting moderated inflation pressures but persistent above-target levels that constrain Fed easing. Unemployment at 4.40% indicates a resilient labor market, supporting consumer spending despite geopolitical headwinds. Broader themes include potential supply chain disruptions from Iran conflict, which could elevate energy costs and challenge the "soft landing" narrative.
