US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Activity Slips, Equities Climb
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,581.00 | +1.15% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,188.59 | +1.22% |
| Dow Jones | 46,208.47 | +1.38% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,494.23 | +2.29% |
| USD/JPY | 158.69 | -0.34% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.31% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.56% |
| Gold | 4,420.70 | +0.38% |
| WTI Crude | 90.53 | +2.72% |
| Bitcoin | 71,243.54 | +0.46% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.88% | +2.37% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.39% | +3.29% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.20 | - | -0.11 |
US 10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.39 (2026-03-20) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.63,3.31,4.32,4.39,4.26,4.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 9,000 | - | 04:15 |
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | 51.90 | - | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.60 | 51 | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 51.70 | 51.70 | 05:45 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 6.6m | - | 12:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | 14:30 |
- Chicago Fed index dipped to -0.11, signaling softer US activity amid market gains.
- Major indices rallied over 1%, with Russell 2000 up 2.29% on broad optimism.
- Yields rose; oil climbed 2.72% amid global tensions.
Yesterday's Recap
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.11 in February, missing the prior 0.20 and indicating a slowdown in US economic momentum with implications for growth forecasts. Equity markets responded positively, interpreting the soft data as reducing pressure for Fed hikes; the S&P 500 rose 1.15% to 6,581.00, Nasdaq 100 gained 1.22% to 24,188.59, Dow Jones advanced 1.38% to 46,208.47, and Russell 2000 surged 2.29% to 2,494.23. Treasury yields climbed, with the 2-year at 3.88% (up 2.37%) and 10-year at 4.39% (up 3.29%), reflecting bets on persistent inflation amid energy risks.
Currency moves were mixed: USD/JPY dipped 0.34% to 158.69, while EUR/USD rose 0.31% to 1.16 and GBP/USD gained 0.56% to 1.34. Commodities strengthened, with gold up 0.38% to 4,420.70 and WTI crude jumping 2.72% to 90.53 on geopolitical supply concerns. Bitcoin edged higher by 0.46% to 71,243.54, supported by risk-on sentiment.
The Day Ahead
Today's calendar features the ADP Employment Change Weekly at 4:15 ET, expected to provide early labor market insights ahead of official payrolls. S&P Global PMI flashes for composite, manufacturing, and services release at 5:45 ET, with manufacturing consensus at 51 and services at 51.7, potentially signaling sector health amid slowdown fears. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 12:30 ET could influence energy prices following recent inventory builds.
Fed's Barr speaks at 14:30 ET, offering clues on policy amid inflation risks. Tomorrow brings MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 3:00 ET, Current Account Balance at 4:30 ET with consensus -211 billion, and trade prices data. EIA inventories at 6:30 ET and Fed's Miran speech at 12:10 ET round out the day, focusing markets on energy and Fed guidance.
Other Economic Notes
Broader US economic themes highlight rising recession risks from geopolitical tensions, with Ray Dalio warning of a potential 'debt death spiral' driven by escalating deficits. Business trends like AI integration and supply chain shifts could reshape growth, though energy shocks from the Iran conflict threaten to exacerbate inflation and slow recovery. States considering gas-tax holidays aim to ease consumer burdens amid high oil prices, reflecting policy efforts to counter war-induced economic pressures.
