US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Stocks Sink on Iran War Fears
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,368.85 | -1.67% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 23,132.77 | -1.93% |
| Dow Jones | 45,166.64 | -1.73% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,449.70 | -1.75% |
| USD/JPY | 159.60 | -0.07% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.37% |
| GBP/USD | 1.32 | -0.80% |
| Gold | 4,561.60 | +1.55% |
| WTI Crude | 101.86 | +2.23% |
| Bitcoin | 67,443.20 | +2.26% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.96% | +3.13% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.42% | +2.08% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield %: 4.42 (2026-03-26) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.74,3.2,4.44,4.52,4.39,4.42
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 0.20 | - | 06:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Chair Powell | - | - | 06:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | 12:00 |
| Tuesday (2026-03-31) | |||
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.40 | 1.50 | 05:00 |
| Chicago PMI | 57.70 | 55.60 | 05:45 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 6.9m | 6.8m | 06:00 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 91.20 | - | 06:00 |
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | - | - | 08:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | 11:00 |
- US equities tumbled amid escalating Iran conflict, with S&P 500 down 1.67% to 6,368.85 as oil surged.
- Treasury yields rose, 10Y at 4.42% up 2.08%, reflecting inflation worries from Middle East tensions.
- Gold and Bitcoin gained as safe havens, while USD weakened against majors.
Yesterday's Recap
US markets closed sharply lower on March 29, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.67% to 6,368.85, driven by fears of prolonged Iran war inflating oil prices and disrupting supply chains. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.93% to 23,132.77, hit by tech selloffs amid rising interest rate expectations, while the Dow Jones slid 1.73% to 45,166.64 on broad risk aversion. Small caps underperformed, with Russell 2000 down 1.75% to 2,449.70, as investors rotated out of cyclicals.
Treasury yields climbed, with the 2Y up 3.13% to 3.96% and 10Y rising 2.08% to 4.42%, signaling bets on persistent inflation from energy shocks. Commodities rallied, WTI crude up 2.23% to 101.86 amid Strait of Hormuz threats, boosting gold 1.55% to 4,561.60 as a hedge. Currency markets saw USD/JPY dip 0.07% to 159.60, while EUR/USD fell 0.37% to 1.15 on relative US strength.
No major data releases occurred, but sentiment soured on reports of US national debt surpassing $39 trillion, exacerbating fiscal concerns.
The Day Ahead
Today's calendar features the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 6:30 ET, expected to show regional activity amid energy volatility, potentially influencing broader ISM expectations. Fed Chair Powell speaks at 6:30 ET, offering insights on policy amid war-driven inflation, while Fed's Williams addresses at 12:00 ET, likely touching on labor and rates. Tomorrow brings high-impact JOLTs Job Openings at 6:00 ET, consensus 6.85 million, alongside CB Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI, key for assessing consumer resilience.
Fed speeches continue with Goolsbee at 8:00 ET and Barr at 11:00 ET, which could signal shifts in forward guidance. Wednesday's ADP Employment Change at 4:15 ET, forecast 42,000, precedes retail sales at 4:30 ET, expected up 0.4% MoM, testing spending amid fuel costs. Markets eye these for Fed rate path clues in a war-uncertain environment.
Other Economic Notes
The US national debt quietly crossed $39 trillion, heightening concerns over fiscal sustainability as war spending escalates borrowing needs. Unemployment stands at 4.40%, supporting a resilient labor market, but CPI YoY at 2.31% faces upside risks from surging oil, potentially delaying rate cuts. (cont...)
