US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Stocks Surge on Easing Yields
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,528.52 | +2.91% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 23,740.19 | +3.43% |
| Dow Jones | 46,341.51 | +2.49% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,496.37 | +3.41% |
| USD/JPY | 158.51 | -0.83% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +1.24% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | +0.99% |
| Gold | 4,763.20 | +2.49% |
| WTI Crude | 99.69 | -1.67% |
| Bitcoin | 68,418.80 | +0.27% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.82% | -1.55% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.35% | -2.03% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 0.20 | - | -0.20 |
| Speech by Fed's Chair Powell | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | - |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Chicago PMI | 57.70 | 55 | 52.80 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.2m | 6.9m | 6.9m |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 91 | - | 91.80 |
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 2.3m | -1.3m | 10.3m |
US CPI YoY vs Fed Funds Rate | Type: macro_line | CPI YoY (%): 2.665 (2026-02-01) | Range: 2.325–8.979 | Trend(5pt): 4.918,8.463,3.687,2.719,2.665 | Fed Funds Rate (%): 3.64 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.06–5.33 | Trend(5pt): 0.06,1.68,5.33,4.64,3.64
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change | 63,000 | 40,000 | 04:15 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Control Group Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Musalem | - | - | 05:05 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | 05:13 |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.40 | 52.50 | 06:00 |
| Business Inventories Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.10 | 06:00 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 48.80 | - | 06:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 6.9m | 2m | 06:30 |
- US equities rallied sharply on mixed data and easing yields, with S&P 500 up 2.91%.
- Economic releases showed softening labor and manufacturing, pressuring Treasury yields lower.
- Fed speeches emphasized data-dependent policy amid inflation below target.
Yesterday's Recap
US economic data on March 31 revealed mixed signals, with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rising 1.2% year-over-year, slightly below the 1.3% consensus and prior 1.4%. Chicago PMI fell to 52.8 from 57.7, missing the 55 expectation and indicating slowing manufacturing momentum. JOLTs Job Openings came in at 6.882 million, below the 6.92 million forecast and prior 7.24 million, highlighting labor market cooling.
CB Consumer Confidence edged up to 91.8 from 91.0, though without a consensus estimate. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks surged to +10.263 million barrels, far exceeding the -1.3 million consensus and prior +2.3 million, weighing on oil prices. Markets reacted positively, with the S&P 500 climbing 2.91% to 6,528.52, Nasdaq 100 up 3.43% to 23,740.19, Dow Jones gaining 2.49% to 46,341.51, and Russell 2000 advancing 3.41% to 2,496.37; Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year at 3.82% (-1.55%) and 10-year at 4.35% (-2.03%).
Currency moves included USD/JPY down 0.83% to 158.51, while EUR/USD rose 1.24% to 1.16 and GBP/USD up 0.99% to 1.33; gold jumped 2.49% to 4,763.20, WTI crude fell 1.67% to 99.69, and Bitcoin edged 0.27% higher to 68,418.80.
The Day Ahead
April 1 brings key US data releases starting with ADP Employment Change at 4:15 ET, expected at 40,000 after 63,000 prior, offering an early gauge of private payrolls. Retail Sales Month-over-Month follows at 4:30 ET, forecasted at 0.5% following -0.2%, with high impact on growth perceptions. Retail Sales Excluding Autos is projected at 0.3% after 0%, and the Control Group at 0.3% post 0.3%, both medium-impact indicators of consumer spending.
Fed's Musalem speaks at 5:05 ET, potentially influencing policy views. These releases could sway Treasury yields and equity sentiment amid ongoing Fed rate cut bets. Stronger-than-expected retail figures might temper easing expectations, while weak prints could boost bonds.
Other Economic Notes
Broader US economic themes highlight persistent labor market softening, with unemployment at 4.40% as of February, supporting a soft landing narrative despite below-target CPI YoY at 2.31%. Housing data like the Case-Shiller index underscores modest price growth amid high mortgage rates, with the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate last at 6.43%. (cont...)
