US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Retail Beats Lift Stocks
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,528.52 | +2.91% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 23,740.19 | +3.43% |
| Dow Jones | 46,341.51 | +2.49% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,496.37 | +3.41% |
| USD/JPY | 159.68 | +0.70% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.51% |
| GBP/USD | 1.32 | +0.54% |
| Gold | 4,653.60 | -2.71% |
| WTI Crude | 108.27 | +8.14% |
| Bitcoin | 66,428.29 | -2.42% |
| US 2Y Treasury | - | - |
| US 10Y Treasury | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 0.20 | - | -0.20 |
| Speech by Fed's Chair Powell | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | - |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Chicago PMI | 57.70 | 55 | 52.80 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.2m | 6.9m | 6.9m |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 91 | - | 91.80 |
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 2.3m | -1.3m | 10.3m |
Retail Sales YoY | Type: macro_line | Retail Sales ($M): 3.714 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.02984–26.51 | Trend(6pt): 26.51,9.593,4.162,3.87,3.191,3.714
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Level | 302,100m | - | 04:30 |
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -80,800m | - | 04:30 |
| Imports Level | 356,600m | - | 04:30 |
| Trade Balance | -54,500m | -59,200m | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 210,000 | 212,000 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | 07:00 |
- US retail sales rose 0.6% MoM, beating expectations and signaling strong consumer spending.
- Major indices surged, with S&P 500 up 2.91% on positive data and reduced recession worries.
- Oil prices spiked 8.14% on Middle East tensions, while gold dropped 2.71% amid risk-on mood.
Yesterday's Recap
US data highlighted economic strength on April 1, with retail sales up 0.6% MoM, topping 0.5% consensus and reversing prior -0.1%, led by control group at 0.5% vs. 0.3% expected and ex-autos at 0.5% vs. 0.3%.
ADP employment rose to 62,000, beating 40,000 forecast but below prior 66,000, suggesting stable hiring before payrolls. JOLTs openings fell to 6.882 million, missing 6.92 million consensus and down from 7.24 million prior, while Chicago PMI slid to 52.8 from 57.7, below 55 estimate, indicating manufacturing slowdown. Consumer confidence rose to 91.8 from 91.0.
Earlier, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices grew 1.2% YoY, under 1.3% consensus and prior 1.4%. Markets rallied: S&P 500 +2.91% to 6,528.52, Nasdaq 100 +3.43% to 23,740.19, Dow +2.49% to 46,341.51, Russell 2000 +3.41% to 2,496.37. USD firmed, USD/JPY +0.70% to 159.68, EUR/USD -0.51% to 1.15, GBP/USD +0.54% to 1.32.
WTI crude +8.14% to 108.27 on geopolitical risks; gold -2.71% to 4,653.60; Bitcoin -2.42% to 66,428.29.
The Day Ahead
April 2 features US exports data at 4:30 ET, offering trade insights amid global tensions. Focus shifts to potential ISM services PMI and Fed Beige Book later, which could reveal sector health and regional trends influencing policy. Fed Chair Powell's prior remarks may echo in analysis, with emphasis on inflation and jobs.
Markets eye USD moves and equity follow-through from retail strength, plus oil volatility from Middle East news.
Other Economic Notes
US economy shows resilience with CPI YoY at 2.31% reflecting easing inflation and unemployment at 4.40% supporting growth. Mortgage rates climbed to 6.57% from 6.43%, pressuring housing as Case-Shiller prices softened. Robust retail and ADP data underscore consumer momentum, but softening PMI and JOLTs signal labor and manufacturing caution.
Oil surge risks higher costs, potentially delaying Fed cuts.
