Retail Beats, Oil Surges Lift Stocks

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500	6,528.52	+2.91%
Nasdaq 100	23,740.19	+3.43%
Dow Jones	46,341.51	+2.49%
Russell 2000	2,496.37	+3.41%
USD/JPY	159.59	+0.57%
EUR/USD	1.15	-0.36%
GBP/USD	1.32	-0.51%
Gold	4,651.50	-2.75%
WTI Crude	111.54	+11.41%
Bitcoin	66,872.07	-0.02%
US 2Y Treasury	3.81%	+0.53%
US 10Y Treasury	4.33%	+0.70%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	0.20	-	-0.20
Speech by Fed's Chair Powell	-	-	-
Speech by Fed's Williams	-	-	-
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year	1.40	1.30	1.20
Chicago PMI	57.70	55	52.80
JOLTs Job Openings	7.2m	6.9m	6.9m
Cb Consumer Confidence	91	-	91.80
Fed Goolsbee Speech	-	-	-
Speech by Fed's Barr	-	-	-
API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks	2.3m	-1.3m	10.3m

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Headline Unemployment Rate	4.40	4.40	04:30
Payroll Jobs Growth	-92,000	60,000	04:30
Annual Wage Growth	3.80	3.80	04:30
Labor Force Participation	62	-	04:30
Monthly Wage Growth	0.40	0.30	04:30

Retail sales topped forecasts at 0.6% MoM, underscoring consumer strength despite energy shocks.
Equities rallied broadly, with S&P 500 up 2.91% on robust data and oil-driven energy gains.
WTI crude spiked 11.41% amid Iran conflict, pushing yields higher and pressuring global currencies.

Yesterday's Recap

US retail sales advanced 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding the 0.5% consensus and reversing the prior -0.1%, highlighting resilient consumer spending amid elevated oil prices. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.5% versus 0.3% expected, and the control group climbed 0.5% against 0.3% forecast, bolstering growth outlooks. ADP employment change registered 62,000, beating the 40,000 estimate but below the previous 66,000, suggesting moderated yet positive hiring.

JOLTs job openings totaled 6.882 million, just under the 6.92 million consensus and down from 7.24 million prior, indicating labor market cooling. Chicago PMI dropped to 52.8, missing the 55 expectation and falling from 57.7, signaling softer manufacturing. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices increased 1.2% year-over-year, below the 1.3% forecast and prior 1.4%, as MBA 30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.57% from 6.43%.

Consumer confidence edged up to 91.8 from 91.0. API crude stocks surged to 10.263 million barrels, far above the -1.3 million consensus draw. Equity markets soared: S&P 500 at 6,528.52 (+2.91%), Nasdaq 100 at 23,740.19 (+3.43%), Dow Jones at 46,341.51 (+2.49%), and Russell 2000 at 2,496.37 (+3.41%), driven by energy sector strength.

WTI crude jumped to $111.54 (+11.41%) on Middle East tensions. Treasury yields rose: 2-year to 3.81% (+0.53%), 10-year to 4.33% (+0.70%). USD/JPY climbed to 159.59 (+0.57%), while EUR/USD fell to 1.15 (-0.36%) and GBP/USD to 1.32 (-0.51%).

Gold declined to $4,651.50 (-2.75%), and Bitcoin held at $66,872.07 (-0.02%).

The Day Ahead

Headline unemployment rate releases at 4:30 ET, with consensus at 4.4% matching the prior, where a steady or lower print could reinforce labor resilience and limit Fed cut bets, while an uptick might fuel dovish repricing and equity volatility. Markets will scrutinize accompanying nonfarm payrolls and wage data for broader employment trends, potentially swaying USD and yields. No other major US data or Fed speeches are slated, shifting focus to geopolitical updates on Iran, which could amplify oil moves and risk sentiment.

Global eyes remain on Middle East developments, including Gulf pipeline talks, for impacts on energy prices and trade flows.

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Other Economic Notes

US CPI year-over-year is at 2.31%, above the Fed's 2% target but indicating ongoing disinflation despite recent energy pressures. Unemployment stands at 4.40%, pointing to a stable labor market, though metrics like declining JOLTs openings hint at emerging slack that could ease wage inflation. Rising mortgage rates to 6.57% are weighing on housing, with decelerating home price growth potentially dampening consumer confidence and spending momentum.

Global Macro News

US-Iran war escalation drove WTI crude to $111.54 (+11.41%), as Gulf states consider new pipelines to sidestep the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to secure supply amid Iranian attacks condemned by GCC leaders. Iraq engages Gulf nations on alternative exports, potentially stabilizing US imports but heightening short-term volatility. Islamic states denounced Israel's death penalty law, adding to regional unrest, while Trump-linked firms promote drones to Gulf allies, escalating tensions.

US mortgage rates hit 6.46% amid conflict, straining housing; emerging markets like Bangladesh face industry disruptions from disrupted flights and trade, and Kenya's reserves dropped to $13.65 billion. Gold fell to $4,651.50 (-2.75%) as Fed rate hopes dimmed, per Trump statements. Bitcoin at $66,872.07 (-0.02%) showed resilience despite economic strains and war impacts.

EUR/USD at 1.15 (-0.36%) and GBP/USD at 1.32 (-0.51%) weakened on US data strength, while USD/JPY rose to 159.59 (+0.57%). Tesla deliveries missed expectations, weighed by expiring US EV tax credits.

Fed Watch

Recent Fed communications maintain a data-dependent approach, with the fed funds rate at 3.64%. Chair Powell's speech stressed balanced risks without altering guidance. New York Fed's Williams noted energy surges from Iran will transmit slowly but elevate inflation risks significantly, per interviews.

Chicago Fed's Goolsbee highlighted labor market strength, with unemployment at 4.40% supporting steady policy. Vice Chair Barr emphasized the 2% inflation goal amid CPI at 2.31% and geopolitical monitoring. Dallas Fed manufacturing index dipped to -0.2 from 0.2, underscoring regional slowdowns.

No vote splits detailed; the committee holds rates amid vigilance on oil passthrough and external shocks, implying prolonged higher rates unless data weakens markedly. Markets see this as tempering easing expectations, contributing to yield gains and equity swings.

US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)