Stocks Rally on Jobs Strength

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500	6,528.52	+2.91%
Nasdaq 100	23,740.19	+3.43%
Dow Jones	46,341.51	+2.49%
Russell 2000	2,496.37	+3.41%
USD/JPY	159.45	-0.02%
EUR/USD	1.16	+0.08%
GBP/USD	1.32	+0.11%
Gold	4,719.30	+1.46%
WTI Crude	110.11	-1.28%
Bitcoin	69,760.91	+1.13%
US 2Y Treasury	3.79%	-0.52%
US 10Y Treasury	4.31%	-0.46%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Services Sector PMI	56.10	55	06:00

Tuesday (2026-04-07)
ADP Employment Change Weekly	10,000	-	04:15
Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month	0	0.40	04:30
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month	0.40	0.70	04:30
Fed Goolsbee Speech	-	-	08:35
API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks	10.3m	-	12:30
Speech by Fed's Jefferson	-	-	13:50

Wednesday (2026-04-08)
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	6.57	-	03:00

US equities surged, with S&P 500 up 2.91% and Nasdaq 100 gaining 3.43%, driven by strong March jobs data and AI sector momentum amid easing rate-cut expectations.
Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year at 4.31% (-0.46%) and 2-year at 3.79% (-0.52%), reflecting bets on Federal Reserve policy stability despite geopolitical risks.
Oil prices dipped 1.28% to $110.11, pressured by Iran war supply concerns, while gold rose 1.46% to $4,719.30 as a safe haven.

Yesterday's Recap

US markets closed higher on April 5, with the S&P 500 climbing 2.91% to 6,528.52, fueled by robust March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and signaling labor market resilience. The Nasdaq 100 led gains at 3.43% to 23,740.19, boosted by tech giants amid AI optimism, while the Dow Jones rose 2.49% to 46,341.51 and Russell 2000 advanced 3.41% to 2,496.37. Treasury yields declined across the curve, with the 10-year dropping 0.46% to 4.31% and the 2-year falling 0.52% to 3.79%, as investors digested Fed Chair Powell's meeting with President Trump on economic discussions.

Currency markets showed modest moves, with USD/JPY nearly flat at 159.45 (-0.02%), EUR/USD up 0.08% to 1.16, and GBP/USD gaining 0.11% to 1.32. Commodities were mixed: WTI crude fell 1.28% to $110.11 amid Iran conflict disruptions, gold rose 1.46% to $4,719.30 on safe-haven demand, and Bitcoin increased 1.13% to $69,760.91. No major data releases occurred yesterday, but the jobs surprise reinforced soft-landing narratives, though war-related supply chain risks tempered energy sector performance.

Overall, equities shrugged off geopolitical tensions, with VIX implied volatility easing slightly.

The Day Ahead

Today's calendar features the Services Sector PMI at 6:00 ET, expected at 55 versus prior 56.1, which could signal service industry cooling and influence Fed rate path expectations. Tuesday brings ADP Employment Change at 4:15 ET, followed by high-impact Durable Goods Orders at 4:30 ET, with consensus for 0.4% month-over-month growth and 0.7% ex-transportation. Fed speakers include Goolsbee at 8:35 ET and Jefferson at 13:50 ET, potentially offering insights on inflation amid war-driven commodity pressures.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 12:30 ET may highlight energy inventory shifts due to Iran export resilience. Wednesday's FOMC Meeting Minutes at 10:00 ET will be pivotal for parsing recent policy debates, alongside MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 3:00 ET and EIA inventories at 6:30 ET. Thursday includes Core PCE Price Index, GDP Growth final estimate, and Personal Income at 4:30 ET.

Markets anticipate volatility around these releases, especially if PMI misses consensus, pressuring yields lower.

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Other Economic Notes

Broader US economic themes center on persistent inflation at 2.31% YoY CPI, complicating the Fed's dual mandate amid unemployment holding at 4.30%. War with Iran is disrupting supply chains, predicting higher costs in energy and manufacturing that could elevate core prices and challenge GDP growth. Corporate earnings reflect resilience, but tariff threats and defense spending hikes to $1.5 trillion signal fiscal strains ahead.

Global Macro News

The ongoing US-Iran war continues to roil global markets, with Iran's Kharg Island oil exports rising despite conflicts, pushing WTI crude volatility and impacting US import costs. European nations like Germany are urging EU taxes on energy windfall profits amid the war, potentially affecting transatlantic trade and US energy firms' competitiveness. China's declining share in US apparel imports, overtaken by Bangladesh, highlights shifting supply chains that could benefit US reshoring efforts but raise apparel inflation risks.

Nigeria's foreign reserves dropped $840 million to $49.18 billion despite naira stability, underscoring emerging market vulnerabilities that might strengthen the USD as a haven. Egypt's reserves edged up to $52.83 billion, signaling some MENA stability, though broader Gulf strikes by Iran add uncertainty to global oil supply. Overall, these developments heighten US exposure to commodity shocks and geopolitical repricing of assets.

Fed Watch

Recent Federal Reserve communications emphasize data-dependent policy, with Chair Powell's meeting with President Trump focusing on economic stability amid war costs, signaling no immediate shifts from the current 3.64% fed funds rate. Powell highlighted fantastic news for investors in labor market strength, as March's 178,000 jobs addition supports the Fed's stance on holding rates to combat lingering inflation pressures. Forward guidance from officials stresses monitoring geopolitical tensions constraining actions, without specifying quantitative tightening adjustments.

The upcoming FOMC minutes may reveal discussions on dot plot projections, likely maintaining a cautious outlook on cuts given supply-chain disruptions from the Iran conflict. Markets interpret this as reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate path, with bond rallies reflecting tempered cut bets. The committee appears unified in prioritizing inflation control over hasty easing.

US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)